Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kpub 210545
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1145 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
issued at 750 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Quick update for cancellation of the red flag warning for fire
zones 220, 222, and 226 through 230. Incorporated latest obs data
and radar imagery. Remainder of the gridded database looks on
track at this time. Moore
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
An upper level low pressure system is currently propagating over
northwestern Colorado and southwestern Wyoming and is traveling to
the northeast. The impacts will be critical fire weather
conditions across the upper Arkansas River valley, Fremont County,
and the I-25 corridor until 8pm MDT tonight.
There is a risk for an isolated thunderstorm over the far
southeastern plains this evening, but with current model trends,
chances seem to be decreasing. The lifting mechanism will be a
dryline that has set up over eastern Las Animas and Baca County and
orographic lift over the Raton Mesa , but the convective inhibition
seems to be a little to much for the lifting mechanisms. If a storm
does break the inhibition, they could become strong, since the cape
values are over 1000 j/kg and the shear values are near 40 knots.
Again, it seems unlikely for thunderstorm development at this time.
Overnight, the trough axis will travel across Colorado and precipitable water
values across the western portions of the region will plummet. The
response will be a cold night over the mountain valleys. Expect
places like Creede and Westcliffe to reach the upper 20s to low 30s.
Otherwise, low temperature values will be in the low to mid 50s over
the plains, the 30s to low 40s over the mountains valleys, and the
teens to 20s over the mountains.
The dryline will be over Kansas tomorrow, so there shouldn't be any
thunderstorms in our region tomorrow. Over the mountains, the air
will be too dry for thunderstorm initiation. Near critical fire
weather conditions will develop over the San Luis valley, the upper
Arkansas River valley, and the I-25 corridor, once again. The
limiting factors will be relative humidity values over the valleys
and wind speeds over the I-25 corridor. There will be no fire
weather products issued at this time.
High temperatures values tomorrow will be closer to the average,
albeit, still slightly above average. The plains should expect high
temperature values in the low to mid 80s, the mountain valleys in
the upper 60s and low 70s, and the mountains in the low 40s to low
Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Not many forecast revisions required from previous meteorological
reasoning for the cwa, as relatively benign conditions expected
during the majority of the longer term, with the possible
exceptions of Saturday night and then again by later next week.
Initially, it still appears that increased pops will be realized
over eastern sections of the County Warning Area Saturday night, thanks to a
north-northeasterly surface surge moving across the area.
Recent longer term computer simulations/trends support idea of
varying degrees of basically dry zonal to southwesterly upper flow
impacting southern Colorado from Sunday into Wednesday, allowing
for generally dry conditions, in combination with near to above
seasonal temperatures as majority of accumulating precipitation
should remain focused over Arizona and New Mexico during this
Then, passing upper disturbances in combination with next
northerly surge is expected to increase precipitation chances and
produce cooler temperatures by next Thursday and Friday. Also, the
highest potential for increased gradient winds during the longer
term should be realized from later Thursday into Friday.
Finally, warmest maximum temperatures during the longer term are
anticipated Monday and Tuesday with coolest readings(although
still near later September climatological averages) projected by
next Friday. In addition, it still appears that the potential
exists that below freezing temperatures may occur over sections of
the San Luis valley during both Sunday and Monday morning. As
always, weather forecast office Pueblo will monitor closely.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
VFR conditions expected at cos and pub over the next 24 hours.
South to southeast winds 10-15 kts expected at taf sites in the
afternoon, with a cold front expected to move across the southeast
plains through the evening, bringing breezy northerly winds a
chance of showers to the plains, mainly along the Palmer dvd.
VFR conditions expected at als over the next 24 hours, with breezy
southwest winds 10-20kts expected in the afternoon.