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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
726 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Update...
issued at 725 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Updated forecast based on current radar trends and observations.

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 240 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Currently...pleasant conditions exist across southern Colorado this
afternoon. Westerly flow has mixed down allowing temperatures to
climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the region. Upper level
wave clouds continue in the Lee of the mountains. Expect these
conditions to prevail through the remainder of the afternoon.

Tonight...water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough
over Wyoming dropping south this afternoon. This upper trough is
forecast to move across Colorado tonight. A cold front will surge
south across the plains after sunset with a period of brisk
northerly winds and colder air. Models have come into better
agreement in regards to precipitation. A quick band, initially
developing along the Palmer Divide, will shift southeast across the
plains through the overnight hours. Really cut back on
precipitation chances down south over the Raton, current models keep
that area dry, and followed suite. Any precipitation that does
fall, will be light and most likely rain, possibly mixed with some
snow after midnight. No accumulations are anticipated at this time.
The upper system will quick swing east late tonight into Sunday
morning with all precipitation coming to an end before sunrise.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s
across the region.

Sunday...broad northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the
region. Weak energy embedded in the flow will likely allow for the
development of mid to upper level wave clouds in the Lee of the
mountains. Overall, expect dry conditions throughout the day.
Temperatures will be on the cool side with upper 50s over the lower
elevations along with light winds. Mozley

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 240 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Upper ridge builds over The Rockies Mon/Tue while old cut-off low
continues to linger near the Baja Peninsula and new upper trough
deepens farther north along the West Coast. Southern Colorado
should see mild temps both days as a result, with some increasing
winds on Tue as surface pressure begins to fall on the plains. Old
cut-off gets kicked northeast Tue night into Wed, with system
weakening as it shears through srn Colorado Wed afternoon. Should still
see fairly widespread showers over much of the area Wed as
vertical motion increases, and cold frontal boundary dropping
south through the plains should enhance lift as well. Snow levels
look fairly high Wed as mid level remain warm, with valleys and
plains staying mainly rain through the day, while mountains,
especially the ern San Juans see a period of accumulating snow.
Max temps all areas will cool substantially Wed afternoon, with
clouds/precip/cold front holding down readings.

Still some timing differences among the operational models and
ensembles regarding eventual eastward ejection of next ern Pacific
cut-off, with 12z GFS about a day faster than European model (ecmwf). In either
case, both Thu and Fri look unsettled across the area as energy
shears eastward through the southern rockies, leading to
occasional rounds of showers into at least early Friday in the
GFS, or early Sat according to the ec. Best dynamic forcing may
end up south of the region as low weakens and shears apart, though
higher elevations of the San Juans and sangres should see a
decent amount of snow by the time system departs next weekend.
Lower elevations will see a mix of rain/snow showers through the
period, though with Max temps staying mainly above freezing,
impacts may be fairly limited.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 240 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Kals...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with light winds
under 10 kts.

Kcos and kpub...VFR conditions through this evening. A cold front
will drop south across the terminals around 02z/sun with norther
to northeast winds and gusts near 30 kts possible. A period of lower
ceilings are expected behind the front with MVFR conditions. Showers are
also possible behind the front but look to remain east of kcos at
this time. A return to VFR conditions is expected late tonight
through Sunday. Mozley



&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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