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000 
FXUS65 KPUB 142129
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
329 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...Red Flag conditions will continue over and near the mountains 
this afternoon and evening...

Gusty winds and low humidity values have resulted in Red Flag 
conditions across the mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon. 
This will continue through 01-02z before winds decouple and humidity 
values rise.  Relative humidity recoveries will be poor across the 
mid slope east facing exposures through the night due to enhanced 
westerly drainage winds. Elsewhere, humidity recover will be fair to 
good.

Meanwhile, a dry cold front will drop southward through the plains 
in the wake of a northern stream upper trough moving through the 
northern plains towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on 
Tuesday. This front will bring a northerly wind shift overnight 
across the southeast plains, and usher in cooler conditions for 
Tuesday as winds shift around from an easterly upslope direction by 
afternoon. Highs across the plains will be in the 60s, which will 
net 10-15 degree cool down and knock temperatures back below climo. 
Mountain areas will also see a slight cool down of a few degrees, 
but not as dramatic as what will occur farther east. Humidity values 
will drop below 15 percent across the mountains once again, but 
winds will be lighter than the past few days, so a return of 
critical fire weather conditions is not anticipated. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tuesday night into Thursday...The mid to upper level flow is 
expected to gradually shift from northwesterly Tuesday night to more 
westerly then southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday. The mid to 
upper level flows will also increase Wednesday, and especially 
Thursday, allowing for some breezier winds mixing to the surface. 
Warmer and drier air is also expected to be ushered into the region, 
which will increase the concern for elevated fire weather conditions 
on Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s on 
Wednesday, then warm to the 80s on Thursday across the plains. The 
high valleys should see highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s both days.

Friday and Saturday...A weak disturbance moves into the area late 
Thursday into early Friday and persists through the day on Saturday. 
An associated surface cold front is expected to move across the 
region, bringing some cooler temperatures back to the area. Chances 
for showers increase as well, mainly on Friday over the higher 
terrain. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s over the plains and 
low to mid 60s in the high valleys each day, with Saturday being the 
cooler day of the two.

Saturday night into Monday...Long range models are indicating that a 
stronger upper level trough will dig into the Rocky Mountain region 
over the weekend. Guidance indicates another drop in temperatures 
Sunday and Monday with increased precipitation chances across the 
region. However, there still is some uncertainty on the timing and 
how far south the trough digs, which will affect the precipitation 
chances and just how cool the temperatures will get on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. 
There will be a period of gusty southwest winds at KALS late this 
afternoon through this evening with gusts to around 20 kts possible. 
KCOS and KPUB will see lighter winds but could see a westerly wind 
shift towards 22-23z with speeds up to 15 kts.  Winds will shift out 
of the north for KCOS and KPUB this evening with speeds staying 
around 10-15 kts overnight for both locations along and behind a 
cold front.  Winds will shift out of the east by Tuesday afternoon 
for both terminals.  KALS will see lighter southerly winds Tuesday 
afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>223-
225>230.

&&

$$

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