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fxus65 kpub 230543 
afdpub

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1143 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 241 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

Dry conditions are expected over the region throughout the short
term forecast period. Precipitable water values are low over the
mountains and mountain valleys, so evening thunderstorms are not
expected. The dry air, clear skies, and light winds will make for
efficient radiational cooling overnight. The cold conditions mean
that a freeze warning will be in place over the San Luis valley
overnight from 0400-0800 MDT. The freeze warning will likely be
the last over the slv since it is indicative of the end of the
growing season. Delicate plants are at risk for freezing and
exposed pipes are at risk to freeze overnight, so take
precautions. The low temperatures overnight are expected to be in
the 40s over the plains, the upper 20s and low 30s over the
mountain valleys, and the teens to 20s over the mountains.

Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, as well. The upper level flow
will shift from the southwest, which will bring temperatures to
above average once again. High temperatures are expected to be in
the mid 80s over the plains, the low to mid 70s over the mountain
valleys, and the 40s to 50s over the mountains.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 241 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

Models show good run to run consistency with the extended period.

Monday night through Wednesday...an upper level low closes off over
Southern California with a weak trof moving through Colorado. A few
showers are possible over the mountains of south central Colorado,
although precipitation looks fairly spotty at best. Temperatures
remain on the mild side with highs in the 80s on the plains, 70s in
the higher valleys, with 50s and 60s in the mountains. At the
surface, a weak front moves through the plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The front will not trigger any precipitation, but it will
drop high temperatures back 5 to 8 degrees on Wednesday east of the
mountains.

The upper low opens up and moves across southeast Colorado Thursday
night into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
mountains of south central Colorado before a few storms spread onto
the plains Friday. Highs Thursday will warm into the lower 80s to
around 90 degrees on the eastern plains, but temperatures drop
back a few degrees for Friday. Breezy conditions are possible
across the area.

Saturday and Sunday feature a deep trof over the western U.S. With a
building upper ridge over the southeast portion of the country.
Southern Colorado will remain in southwesterly flow aloft. It
will be warm and breezy over the weekend which may lead to high
fire danger. Stark

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1113 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

VFR conditions are expected at kcos, kpub and kals the next 24
hrs. Clouds will increase over the area tonight, with clouds
(mainly mid and high level) should remain over the area much of
Mon. Winds will be light thru about midday Mon and then kcos and
kpub should see southeast to south-southeast winds up to 12 kts.
Kals should see southwest afternoon winds around 10 kts, and there
could be some gusts between 15 and 20 kts.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning from 4 am to 8 am MDT Monday for coz069>071.

&&

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