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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
259 PM MDT sun Aug 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun Aug 18 2019

Nearly cloud free skies over most of southern Colorado this
afternoon as mid level dry air continues to spread across the
region. For tonight and Monday, upper level high pressure will
continue to slowly build northward over the srn rockies, with dry
air remaining in place over the mountains and interior valleys into
Mon afternoon. Slightly deeper moisture does creep into the far sern
corner of the plains late Mon, bringing a low chance for
thunderstorms to mainly Baca County as modest instability develops.
Max temps area-wide will continue to run on the hotter side of
seasonal averages, with readings of 92-102f on the plains, while
mountains and valleys reach the 70s and 80s. While humidity will
again drop below 15 percent over much of the higher terrain, winds
will be fairy light under building high pressure, so no fire weather
highlights needed.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun Aug 18 2019

Models in decent agreement through the extended with more ensemble
spread than yesterday. Overall the forecast confidence remains

Monday night and Tuesday...high pressure will continue to spin
across the region with dry weather expected to continue Monday
night. The exception may be out near the Kansas border before
sunset where one or two storms may develop. Confidence in this
occurrence is low. By Tuesday, increasing moisture and energy
moving north out of New Mexico will lead to better chances for
showers and thunderstorms. For the most part, activity will
initially remain confined to the southern Sangre de Cristo and
Raton Mesa regions. As we move through the evening hours, expect
activity to spread along the Continental Divide into northeast
Colorado as the upper disturbance moves north across the region.
Highs on Tuesday will continue to be hot with upper 90s to near
100 across the plains.

Wednesday into upper trough moving across the
northern states will send a cold front south across the plains.
This will turn low level flow upslope and advect moisture back
across the plains. Models in good agreement with widespread,
locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms across the region. Local
burn scars will need to be monitored to flash flooding. In
addition, gusty outflow winds, lightning and small hail will all
be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. On Thursday,
another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
state. Initial development is forecast over the mountains, which
will spread east into the plains through the evening. Locally
heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary threats. This
activity will spread east into Kansas overnight. Temperatures will
be cooler for Wednesday and Thursday with mid 80s to lower 90s
expected for the lower elevations.

Friday through Sunday...high pressure will rebuild across the
western states putting Colorado under weak northwest flow aloft.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, and generally terrain
and diurnally driven. If a stronger storm can hit a burn scar,
flash flooding may be possible. Temperatures will also be on the
increase with highs in the 90s to near 100 by the weekend. Mozley


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun Aug 18 2019

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with
typical diurnal wind cycle.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


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