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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
348 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 346 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Current GOES water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is
indicating moderate northwest flow aloft across the region with a
broad upper trough in place across the central Continental U.S. And upper level
ridging across the West Coast at this time. GOES satellite imagery
is indicating mainly clear skies across the region, with the
nighttime microphysics rgb channel detecting some steam fog across
lake Pueblo early this morning. Temperatures across the region this
morning remain quite varied from the single digits to the teens and
20s, with the coldest readings across the far southeast plains as of
2 am.

Today-tonight...latest models are consistent with northwest flow
moderating some through the day today before increasing again
through tonight, as more short wave energy, moving onshore across
the Pacific northwest coast this morning, translates across the
intermountain west. After a cool start, temperatures to rebound
nicely this afternoon, with highs in the 40s and 50s areawide, save
in the 30s at the peaks. With Lee troughing across the plains, will
see breezy southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph across the far southeast
plains this afternoon, with breezy westerly winds across the higher
terrain and through the upper Arkansas River valley. With increasing
northwest flow aloft, Lee troughing is progged to deepen across the
I-25 corridor tonight, leading to breezy westerly winds over and
near the higher terrain tonight. This, along with developing wave
clouds, will lead to warmer overnight lows mainly in the 20s and 30s
areawide, warmest across the higher terrain along and west of the I-
25 corridor.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 346 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019

..temperature fluctuations into the weekend...

Wednesday...northwest flow aloft remains in place as a shortwave
crosses Montana and Wyoming early Wed, sending a dry cold front south into
Colorado. No precip is anticipated, and the tricky part of the
forecast will the high temp which will be solely dependent on timing
of the front. If the front pushes south a bit earlier in the day,
then current forecast temps will be too warm. Current Max T grids
have 50s to lower 60s, but readings across the eastern plains may
need to be lowered a bit more. Stay tuned.

Thursday and Friday...models indicate some lingering shortwave
energy across the region early Thu, then an upper ridge slides east
across The Four Corners and Colorado for Fri. Expect continued dry
conditions, with cool temps on Thu warming significantly for Fri.
Highs on Thu are forecast to be in the 50s for most areas, then on
Fri climbing into the 60s for the plains while staying in the 50s
for the high valleys.

Saturday and Sunday...the next upper trough is expected to cross The
Rockies and northern plains on Sat. This feature looks like it will
be stronger with a greater chance of bringing some snow to the
higher terrain, as well as some precip for the plains, Sat aftn
through Sun morning. Temps are Sat will still be somewhat warm prior
to cold front passage in the aftn, with highs in the 50s for the
high valleys and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Temps then cool
for sun, with highs in the 50s for all areas.

Monday...high pressure builds back into the desert SW, producing dry
and slightly warmer temps for the forecast area for the start of the
next work week. Plan on highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and
upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 346 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions are expected at cos, pub and als over the next 24
hours, with generally light diurnal wind regimes.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...

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