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FXUS65 KPUB 162115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019


A longwave trough at mid level was noted just onshore of the Pacific 
West Coast while a ridge was noted over the Northern Midwest. A 
weakening shortwave was deamplifying as it was moving just to the 
northeast of the region. The atmosphere was gradually drying out 
this afternoon although remnant moisture was still noted over the 
mountains and plains, and several showers were noted over the 

Over the mountains and valleys it was relatively cool with 
temperatures in the 60s in the valleys to lower 40s at mountain top. 
Over the plains it was a different story as it was still quite warm 
with lower  to mid 90s over parts of the far eastern plains and 80s 
over the remainder of the lower elevations. 

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Best chance of showers will generally in areas west of the Sangre De 
Cristo mountains the rest of this afternoon and early evening. With 
the atmosphere relatively cool over the  San Luis Valley (SLV), any 
storms that get going over the west slopes of the SDC mountains 
should be relatively weak and low-end precip producers, so believe 
flash flooding threats over the burn scars in the SDC mountains 
should be low. Elsewhere, we could see some showers and storms over 
the plains, generally east of the sfc trough axis extending from east 
of KLHX to Kim. It is already quite windy east of the trough axis so 
any storms that develop out east could produces a svr convective 
wind gusts or two later this afternoon.

For tonight...It will remain breezy out east otherwise I anticipate 
pretty docile weather over the region. Some showers will be possible 
along the contdvd. temps tonight will range from the 60s over the 
far eastern plains, 55 to 60 along the I-25 corridor to 40s and 30s 
in the valleys/mountains. 

For parts of the SLV, I cant rule out some patchy ground fog in 
places due to the rain that they had last 24 hours or so, but 
confidence is not all that high that it will occur. 


The mid level trough will be just to the north of NW Colorado by 
mid day tomorrow as it lift off to the east-northeast. This trough
will increase the gradient aloft significantly and expect winds 
at mountaintops tomorrow afternoon to get quite breezy at times, 
with gusts to 40 to 50 mph, especially across the central 
mountains. Showers will also be on the increase across the CONTDVD
tomorrow. This trough will push through a Pacific front, but do 
not see much sensible change in temperatures across the higher 
terrain tomorrow as compared to today. 

On the plains, we will likely see more sun tomorrow with westerly 
downslope winds by later in the afternoon as the sfc trough moves 
across. This should allow max temps to be 1 to 3 degrees warmer 
tomorrow as compared to today. Precip chances tomorrow on the plains 
are pretty low, with the possibility of a fe showers moving over 
parts of El Paso county in the afternoon. There will also be a very 
low chance of showers over the far southeast plains. \/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Initially, precipitation is expected to be on a decreasing trend
Tuesday evening over southern Colorado as closed upper low shifts
into North Dakota.

Additional rounds of isolated to scattered primarily afternoon 
into evening showers and thunderstorms(favoring higher terrain
locations) are anticipated from Wednesday into Friday as 
relatively weak upper disturbances rotate across the CWA during 
this time-frame. 

In addition, gradient winds are expected to increase Friday, 
helping to enhance the fire weather threat on Friday. WFO Pueblo 
will continue to closely monitor latest trends and issue fire 
weather highlights as warranted.

Then, generally dry southwesterly to zonal upper flow is expected 
to develop over the majority of the CWA from Saturday into 
Monday, allowing for basically dry and breezy conditions over the 
majority of CWA(with the possible exception of northern locations 
Saturday night, where a northerly component surface surge will be
capable of generating precipitation) in combination with elevated
fire weather concerns at times. 

Above seasonal mid-September temperatures are expected to continue
from Tuesday evening into Friday night, followed by cooler
temperatures(although still near to slightly above seasonal
averages) over the majority of the CWA from this weekend into 
next Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR next 24 hours at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Winds should be relatively 
light, and mainly from a SW component during the afternoon tomorrow. 

There is a low chance of some ground fog at KALS tomorrow morning 
towards sunrise, but risk appears pretty low at this time.




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