Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS65 KPUB 162115 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Currently... A longwave trough at mid level was noted just onshore of the Pacific West Coast while a ridge was noted over the Northern Midwest. A weakening shortwave was deamplifying as it was moving just to the northeast of the region. The atmosphere was gradually drying out this afternoon although remnant moisture was still noted over the mountains and plains, and several showers were noted over the region. Over the mountains and valleys it was relatively cool with temperatures in the 60s in the valleys to lower 40s at mountain top. Over the plains it was a different story as it was still quite warm with lower to mid 90s over parts of the far eastern plains and 80s over the remainder of the lower elevations. Rest of Today and Tonight... Best chance of showers will generally in areas west of the Sangre De Cristo mountains the rest of this afternoon and early evening. With the atmosphere relatively cool over the San Luis Valley (SLV), any storms that get going over the west slopes of the SDC mountains should be relatively weak and low-end precip producers, so believe flash flooding threats over the burn scars in the SDC mountains should be low. Elsewhere, we could see some showers and storms over the plains, generally east of the sfc trough axis extending from east of KLHX to Kim. It is already quite windy east of the trough axis so any storms that develop out east could produces a svr convective wind gusts or two later this afternoon. For tonight...It will remain breezy out east otherwise I anticipate pretty docile weather over the region. Some showers will be possible along the contdvd. temps tonight will range from the 60s over the far eastern plains, 55 to 60 along the I-25 corridor to 40s and 30s in the valleys/mountains. For parts of the SLV, I cant rule out some patchy ground fog in places due to the rain that they had last 24 hours or so, but confidence is not all that high that it will occur. Tuesday... The mid level trough will be just to the north of NW Colorado by mid day tomorrow as it lift off to the east-northeast. This trough will increase the gradient aloft significantly and expect winds at mountaintops tomorrow afternoon to get quite breezy at times, with gusts to 40 to 50 mph, especially across the central mountains. Showers will also be on the increase across the CONTDVD tomorrow. This trough will push through a Pacific front, but do not see much sensible change in temperatures across the higher terrain tomorrow as compared to today. On the plains, we will likely see more sun tomorrow with westerly downslope winds by later in the afternoon as the sfc trough moves across. This should allow max temps to be 1 to 3 degrees warmer tomorrow as compared to today. Precip chances tomorrow on the plains are pretty low, with the possibility of a fe showers moving over parts of El Paso county in the afternoon. There will also be a very low chance of showers over the far southeast plains. \/Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Initially, precipitation is expected to be on a decreasing trend Tuesday evening over southern Colorado as closed upper low shifts into North Dakota. Additional rounds of isolated to scattered primarily afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms(favoring higher terrain locations) are anticipated from Wednesday into Friday as relatively weak upper disturbances rotate across the CWA during this time-frame. In addition, gradient winds are expected to increase Friday, helping to enhance the fire weather threat on Friday. WFO Pueblo will continue to closely monitor latest trends and issue fire weather highlights as warranted. Then, generally dry southwesterly to zonal upper flow is expected to develop over the majority of the CWA from Saturday into Monday, allowing for basically dry and breezy conditions over the majority of CWA(with the possible exception of northern locations Saturday night, where a northerly component surface surge will be capable of generating precipitation) in combination with elevated fire weather concerns at times. Above seasonal mid-September temperatures are expected to continue from Tuesday evening into Friday night, followed by cooler temperatures(although still near to slightly above seasonal averages) over the majority of the CWA from this weekend into next Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 VFR next 24 hours at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Winds should be relatively light, and mainly from a SW component during the afternoon tomorrow. There is a low chance of some ground fog at KALS tomorrow morning towards sunrise, but risk appears pretty low at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.