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fxus65 kpub 221028 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
428 am MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 428 am MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Scattered thunderstorms were continuing this morning as of 3 am over
mainly Prowers and Baca counties, but they are expected to end by
about 6 am. Forecast models then have dry weather across southern
Colorado until midday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are then expected to develop over the mtns in the
early afternoon, then spread across the high valleys and I-25
corridor by mid to late afternoon. In the evening hours, showers
and storms are expected to move across the southeast plains and then
diminish and end over the mtns and high valleys. After midnight,
there could be some isolated showers/tstms lingering over the far
southeast plains. Storms today will likely be slow moving and could
produce locally heavy rain. If heavy rain falls over a burn scar or
urban area, there will be a flash flooding risk.

Temps today are expected to be around average, with highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s over the southeast plains, and in the upper 70s and
lower 80s in the upper Arkansas and San Luis valleys.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 428 am MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Friday-Friday night...latest models continue to indicate increasing
westerly flow aloft across the region through the day Friday, which
becomes more northwest Friday night, as eastern Pacific energy
moving onshore across the pac northwest coast this morning, continues to
move across the northern tier through the day Friday and into the
upper Midwest Friday night. Latest models do indicate a slight
increase in mid and upper level moisture within the westerly flow
aloft, and combined with implied lift associated with the passing
system (best seen in pv fields), models are indicating the
development of isolated to scattered high based storms across the
higher terrain through the day Friday, which move east across the
adjacent plains through the afternoon. The westerly flow aloft
develops a Lee trough across the southeast plains on Friday, with
low level moisture mixing out west of the trough/dryline as low
level moisture pools along and east across the far southeast plains.
Models indicating the far southeast plains to be initially capped
through the early afternoon, though with uvv with the passing
system, could see strong to severe storms developing across the far
southeast plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Spc's day 2
outlook is catching onto this, as they are indicating areas just
east of the I-25 corridor and north of Highway 50 in a marginal
risk. Temperatures look to warm back to at and slightly above
seasonal levels, with highs back in the mid 80s to mid 90s across
the plains Friday.

Saturday-Sunday...mainly dry, warm and breezy weather continues to
be progged for the weekend, as more eastern Pacific energy moving
across the Pacific northwest carves out a broad upper trough across the
northern tier. This will bring moderate to strong west to northwest
flow aloft across the region, with drier air moving into The
Rockies. The drier air will limit diurnal convection through the
weekend, as mixing through the afternoon leads to breezy conditions
and possible critical fire weather conditions, especially on Sunday
across northern and western portions of the area. Temperatures
through the weekend are expected to be above seasonal levels once
again, with record highs possible on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...latest models are coming into better agreement of
the broad upper trough continuing into the central and eastern Continental U.S.
Through mid week, as upper ridging rebuilds across the desert SW and
rockies. This will allow for a modest cold front to move across the
plains on Monday, with eastern upslope flow persisting through the
week, keeping low level moisture in place and chances of afternoon
showers and storms with possible disturbances within weak northwest
flow aloft. Ridging across the desert SW into The Rockies looks to
keep monsoonal moisture west of the area, keeping warm and mainly
dry conditions across western portions of the area. Temperatures
through the extended period look to be at and above seasonal


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 428 am MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Low stratus at kcos is expected to dissipate early this morning.
Otherwise kcos should see VFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the vicinity from around 20z thru about 02z.

Kpub is expected to have VFR conditions. There could be some
showers/tstms in the vicinity from about 23z through 03z.

Showers/tstms could move into the vicinity of kals late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are

Showers and thunderstorms could produce gusty outflow winds and the
potential for brief heavy rain.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...

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