Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 krev 191059
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
359 am PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Expect light rain showers, cloudy skies, well below average
temperatures, and a brisk northwest wind today as a low pressure
trough exits the region to the east. High elevation snow showers
are also possible through this afternoon. Dry conditions return
for the weekend with a warming trend before active weather
conditions return by Sunday.
Current radar early this morning still shows some light rain showers
in Lassen County as well as out in Churchill and Pershing counties
from a low pressure trough centered over western Nevada. Some areas
throughout the region saw some decent 24 hour rainfall amounts from
this system, including ~0.5-0.6 inches of rain up in Plumas County
near the Walker fire. Expect this showery weather to continue
throughout the day today with better chances for areas north of I-80
and along the Sierra from the Tahoe basin, southward into Mono
County due to upslope enhancement. Elevations of above 8000 ft in
the Sierra could even see some snow showers during this time with
little to no accumulation expected. Showers taper off by nightfall
as the trough exits the region to the east.
Temperatures overall will continue to be on the chilly side for
today before warming for the weekend. Highs for the western Nevada
and Sierra valleys are only expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s
range (roughly 15 degrees below normal for mid-september) for this
afternoon accompanied by mostly cloudy skies and a brisk northwest
wind. During the overnight, temperatures around the region will be
relatively cold with lows forecast in the upper 30s, low 40s for
western Nevada and about 10 degrees colder than that in the
Sierra. Some lower valleys in western Nevada (e.G. Lovelock,
Minden, and north valleys) may even experience a frost during this
time. Definitely time to dust off those fall Coats!
For Friday and Saturday, weather conditions look to improve as the
trough moves out of the region being replaced by a shortwave ridge
from the west. Temps will still be below normal on Friday, forecast
to be about 10 degrees warmer compared to today's. A light northeast
wind is also anticipated throughout the day on Friday keeping temps
cooler. By Saturday, winds will be calm and temperatures climb back
to near normal with highs in the 70s area wide before another low
pressure system moves into the region for Sunday.
Long term...Sunday through next week
The overall ideas haven't changed much this morning. Main changes
were to increase winds and continue the upward trend in the precip
chances for Sunday afternoon into Monday.
The next cold front is set to arrive Sunday afternoon with breezy
west to southwest winds. It will be similar to the front that went
through today, with gusts of 30-40 mph dominating. There will be a
few stronger gusts to 50 mph in wind prone locations. Behind the
front, showers will develop and slowly progress south Sunday night.
This system does not look as wet as the current or previous one, but
a few areas will see 1/4 inch of rain or more. The shower chances
continue into Monday mainly south of Highway 50. Temperatures will
also be cool, but not quite as cold as they will be today.
Models are in better agreement with the system being progressive
enough to drop into Arizona before it cuts off. This results in the
east Pacific Ridge nosing into the area for a warmup. It is looking
more like it will warm into the 80s in the lower valleys midweek and
70s in the Sierra. This will be short-lived, however.
Ensembles show another trough for Friday into next weekend. The
timing and depth are yet to be determined, but it is a solid signal
for 8-10 days out. Another cooling trend with gusty winds ahead of
the front and more showers along and behind the front. Of note, some
ensemble members are quite cold with this trough, colder than
anything seen so far this fall. Stay tuned. X
scattered showers will occur around the area today with MVFR ceilings in
the Sierra and mtn obscuration. The showers will diminish from 00-
04z with VFR conditions thereafter. Light north winds near 10 kts
will also occur throughout the day. VFR conditions will continue
Friday and Saturday with light winds.
Another cold front is anticipated for Sunday with gusty southwest
winds to 30 kts. Showers will also occur behind the front Sunday
afternoon into Monday. X