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fxus65 krev 232209 
afdrev

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
309 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Synopsis...

Mid-Summer heat will persist across the Sierra and western Nevada
for the upcoming week. The threat for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will retreat to south of Highway 50 Wednesday
through Saturday, although a few storms could work north of Highway
50 on Friday. A few stronger storms are possible with frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

Discussion...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area today as
high pressure building into the Great Basin pushes moisture into
the Sierra and western Nevada.

Moisture now in place from a wave of light showers this morning
is combining with daytime heating and the Zephyr wind boundary to
initiate storms. This will bring a round of stronger storms to
western Nevada this afternoon. The best chances for storms are
again expected to be well east of Tahoe/Reno/Carson this
afternoon, mainly in west-central Nevada. Storms could produce
small to nickel sized hail, brief heavy downpours, and erratic
wind gusts to around 40 mph.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged. Storms are expected to
be confined to mostly Mono/Mineral counties Wednesday and Thursday
as a trough moving through the Pacific northwest pushes dry air
into the region north of I-80. Storms could potentially becoming
more widespread again on Friday as high pressure building into the
Desert Southwest allows a push of moisture into the region. Storms
are expected to clear out of the area for the weekend with the one
exception being the high terrain of Mono County on Saturday where
a slight chance of storms will remain.

Heat...it's going to be hot the next week or so. This is typically
the hottest time of year, and it's looking like temperatures are
going to be a little above average (4-6 degrees) through early
next week. We have triple digits forecast for Reno Sunday and
monday; however, very dry air is forecast to be in place this
time around which will help allow temperatures to cool back into
the mid 50s to low 60s at night, hopefully lessening the overall
heat health impacts. -Zach

&&

Aviation...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms today are expected to be
pushed into west-central Nevada along the afternoon Zephyr wind
boundary. A few strong storms are possible, mainly east of Pyramid
Lake, with heavy rain, small to nickel size hail, and gusty outflow
winds to around 40 knots. Wednesday and Thursday storms are forecast
to be confined to mainly Mono/Mineral counties south of Highway 50
before possibly becoming more widespread again on Friday.

Hot afternoons with Lower Valley temperatures in the mid to upper
90s (nearing 100 over the weekend) with usual afternoon breezes
gusting to around 20-25 knots are expected through the week. -Zach

&&

Fire weather...

* winds/rhs: the area of highest concern today for locally
critical conditions is across northeast California and northwest
Nevada (zones 270/278/458). Winds have been gusting 25-30 mph so
far and could reach 30-35 mph in a few spots before the day is
done. Humidities are not overly dry in a relative sense, but
will still bottom out around the mid-teens for valleys and lower
slopes. Elsewhere to the south and east into the western Great
Basin, winds are gusting 20-30 mph (highest northern Sierra
front). However, humidities are likely to remain well above 15%
as deeper moisture has moved into the region today.

Much lighter winds are expected for the rest of the week with
typical or sub-typical afternoon/evening breezes expected.

* Thunderstorms: the main concern for thunderstorms and more
widespread coverage of lightning today remains east of Highway
395 in the basin and range. Stronger thunderstorms out in west-
central Nevada could produce erratic wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Fortunately, coverage of
stronger storms is expected to remain fairly isolated; in
addition, stronger storms are likely to produce a swath of
heavier rainfall to limit fire start potential. Still, outside
of cores a few lightning strikes will bring the potential for a
few new fire starts.

Thunderstorm potential retreats to south of Highway 50 into
Mono and Mineral counties Wednesday and Thursday as drier air
works into areas farther north. Friday, a few storms could Eek
back north of I-80 before retreating south again for the
weekend. -Snyder

&&

Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&

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