Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 242341
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
high pressure with dry and cooler weather through Sunday. Upper
level system Monday night. Cold front Tuesday night.
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 730 PM Saturday...
Aside from a few adjustments to cloud cover for this evening,
the forecast remains on track and no other changes were needed.
As of 125 PM Saturday...
Relatively quiet weather expected through the near term period
on the southern end of a surface high passing by to the north.
Hi-res models try to kick off some showers this afternoon across
the mountains...think the best chance of this would be across
the southern mountains where the moisture depth is better.
However, this is also the area that has been shrouded in stratus
all day, so should be fairly stable. Opted to remove showers
from the forecast due to this. Today's cumulus deck should give
way to mostly clear skies overnight, with some River Valley fog
by morning thanks to cool air over warm water. Much like last
night, overnight lows will be below normal. High temperatures on
Sunday will top out a few degrees warmer than today for most of
US, with reading generally just below normal for late August.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 235 PM Saturday...
Southwest flow aloft will usher in deeper moisture Sunday night
into Monday, ahead of an approaching S/W trof. It still appears
most of the shower activity will remain west of the area through
Monday night. That being said, I did keep small chances across
southeast Ohio. Upper trof deamplifies over the region Tuesday as
coastal low tracks off the NC coast. Shower chances increase
as the day progresses, with an afternoon storm or two possible.
Another S/W trof approaches late Tuesday which will drive a surface
cold front thru late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will start out near normal, before spiking well
into the 80s on Tuesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 235 PM Saturday...
Drier air advects into the region behind the front Wednesday and
carries thru the end of the week under general northwest flow
aloft. Temperatures will ease back to more seasonable levels
behind the front.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 740 PM Saturday...
MVFR stratus that had plagued bkw through much of the day has
finally lifted, allowing for all sites to bestow VFR
conditions. This will remain the case through the first half of
the overnight period as the area remains under the influence of
The caveat to tranquil weather and mostly clear skies will be
the potential for fog during the predawn hours. One forecast
challenge that arose while working on the current taf package
was the notable 20-25 kt low level jet hinted by forecast soundings. If
this were to come into fruition, this would inhibit fog
production from occurring at most terminals. When taking into
account the lowered confidence for the overnight forecast, have
chosen to only include IFR at ekn at this time.
The high will progress eastward toward New England through the
day Sunday, veering surface winds out of a southerly direction
by the afternoon. Included a two hour window for gustier winds
at bkw Sunday morning as the overnight jet mixes out after
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Monday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing and coverage of fog tonight may vary
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h M M M l l M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M l
After 00z Monday...
IFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms on Monday.