Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 152346
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
746 PM EDT sun Sep 15 2019
high pressure in control tonight. Mainly dry cold front crosses
Monday. High pressure and upper ridge dominate latter half of
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 735 PM Sunday...
Elected to lower overnight lows a few degrees in the protected
valleys/hollers given the very dry airmass in place. We should
see a decent drop this evening which will tend to lock in the
inversion near the surface even as boundary layer winds pick
late. This should also promote some River Valley fog, primarily
across the tygart/tug/Guyandotte/Coal.
As of 131 am Sunday...
Latest satellite imagery shows some mid and high clouds were
pushing across the area.
These clouds were associated with a mid-level disturbance and
weak cold front which were pushing toward the region.
This trend should continue with the clouds increasing in areal
coverage overnight. Could still see some dense valley fog.
However, confidence is low.
The disturbance and cold front are expected to push east across
the area on Monday. Airmass should be quite dry. However, model
blend suggests scattered showers may be possible across the
northern half of our area. Have gone ahead and added slight
chance probability of precipitation to match up with the neighbors.
Model blend temps were a little warm for highs today.
Combination of additional clouds and precipitation should be
enough to hold temperature down below guidance as well on
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 204 PM Sunday...
Models indicate high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will
build back into the region through the period. A few of the models
suggest there could be a few showers again Tuesday afternoon.
However, have kept forecast dry as moisture aloft should be
Temperatures will be on the warm side through the period.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 204 PM Sunday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in control
for the remainder of the week with dry weather and daytime
temperatures running well above normal.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
as of 740 PM Sunday...
Mid level feature passes tonight with nothing more than some
high clouds. VFR conditions prevail at most taf sites overnight,
save for ekn where vlifr in fog.
VFR conditions Monday, with nothing more than a scattered cumulus
field. A cold front approaches late with isolated shra/tsra.
Coverage is not high enough for any mention in the tafs.
Weak south to southeast flow overnight veering to the west 5 to
10kts Monday ahead of the front.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: dense valley fog could be more widespread
than forecast late tonight.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
crw consistency h h h h h h h h M M h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h M M M l l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 00z Tuesday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible Tuesday morning.