Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 070804
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 am EST Sat Dec 7 2019
high pressure through the weekend. Rain develops Sunday night
and Monday with a strong cold front Tuesday. Colder for the
middle of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 200 am Saturday...
Currently, light snow flurries persist in the mountains near
Snowshoe and should diminish in the next few hours. Very little
accumulations are expected with no impacts. All other
precipitation has come to an end elsewhere and clouds slowly
exit south with significant clearing behind the frontal
boundary. With clouds clearing out over the area, a chilly start
to the day as morning lows drop to below freezing across the
board with some locations hitting low to mid 20's in the extreme
northern and mountainous areas due to radiational cooling and
cold air advection. As remnants of the frontal boundary to our
south exit this morning, dry air filters in behind with high
pressure building in from the west. This will promote fair
weather and a sunny day warming up to right around seasonable
with mid to upper 40's for The Lowlands and low to mid 30's in
the mountains. A fair amount of northeasterly wind will persist
throughout the day and pick up out of the east starting very
early on Sunday morning in response to a trough moving in from
the west and high pressure sitting to the east compressing the
pressure gradient. This will deter any fog from forming in the
early morning hours.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
as of 255 am Saturday...
Dramatic increase in lower level moisture as it begins to surge
northward and then northeastward into the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys for the beginning of the week. Cold front trudges
eastward and will take its time to push through the cwa, but it
will be the myriad of features in the flow aloft that should
supply semi consistent lifting mechanisms to take advantage of
the moisture increases. Not much instability, but the duration
of the on and off nature of the showers could become problematic
where rainfall will quickly become runoff. Adding wording to
the severe weather potential statement. Totals may not be alarming looking at a glance, but the
basin coverage will be a key factor in whether or not we end up
with water issues. Right now for the duration, looking at a 1-2
inch potential. Cold front finally passes Tuesday with a much
colder airmass following for the middle of the week.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
as of 255 am Saturday...
Drying out period with the exit of the cold front and a 1040mb
plus-high pressure system arriving. Blended temperature values
for Wednesday and Thursday have been coming down with each run,
and could have trouble getting above freezing for the Wednesday
time period. Slow modification of these temperatures into the
beginning of the weekend with cyclogenesis over the northeast
Gulf Coast that will eventually push moisture back into the
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 1230 am Saturday...
The remnants of a frontal boundary exit this morning to the
south taking MVFR cigs and the last of the precipitation with
it. All terminals should be cleared out by mid morning with no
restrictions. Winds will stay just high enough to suppress any
fog formation behind the front where clearing is taking place
already. Northerly flow will shift to the northeast by sunrise
and keep turning to the east. Once the last bit of clouds roll
out to the south, VFR will commence areawide through the rest of
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 12/07/19
UTC 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h M M M h h h h h h h
ekn consistency M M M M M M h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Sunday...
MVFR/IFR possible Monday/Tuesday in rain.