Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 171823
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
223 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
very warm and quiet weather to persist through the week. A cold
front approaches by the beginning of next week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 203 PM Tuesday...
Pretty Stout cu field exists this afternoon as moisture is
trapped in a thin layer around 800 mb. Cloud cover is a little
thicker along the eastern mountains where orographic lift from
east-northeast low level flow could result in a few showers this afternoon.
Impacts, however, should be minimal.
Cumulus field should quickly dissipate this evening with rather
tranquil nocturnal weather expected. Areas of River Valley fog
may develop overnight, primarily across the northern and eastern
County Warning Area where the low level flow is prog to be the weakest.
Another quiet weather day is expected for Wednesday. Weak sfc
troughing may develop from NE to SW, bisecting the cwa, but will
have minimal influences on area weather. If anything, it may
promote a drier atmospheric profile along with continued very
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
as of 155 PM Tuesday...
High pressure will remain dominant during the forecast period,
with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. An isolated
shower cant be completely ruled out during the period from any
passing weak disturbance, but overall chances too low for a
mention in the forecast.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 155 PM Tuesday...
High pressure remains in control over the weekend, but upper
ridge will gradually start to break down in advance of an
approaching system and cold front, which will move into the area
Sunday night into Monday, finally providing a chance for
precipitation across the area. Sunday could be an enhanced fire
danger day, with low relative humidity and gusty winds out ahead of approaching
front, but at this point looks to warrant nothing more than a
Special Weather Statement/no red flag warning anticipated at
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 132 PM Tuesday...
VFR expected to prevail this afternoon/evening. Status deck over
kpkb has been stubborn all morning, but is finally eroding with
cigs rising. MVFR cigs should only persist a little longer at
kpkb before improving to VFR. Otherwise a dense cu field should
occur this afternoon across nearly the entire region. A few
rain showers may develop along/near the mountains, but impacts to
aerodromes should be low to nil.
Overnight, clearing is expected around sunset as cu field
dissipates. Areas of River Valley fog may try to develop later
in the night across kekn to kpkb, but coverage elsewhere is
rather uncertain as flow at 925mb is prog to be slightly too
strong (10 to 20 kt) for significant fog
VFR then expected by mid morning Wed with a much drier
atmospheric column expected, as compared to today.
Weak/vrb sfc winds for much of the period, becoming calm at
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: coverage and timing of overnight fog may
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h M M l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Wednesday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible each morning,
especially at kekn.