Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 182330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
unseasonably warm and dry weather to persist through the week.
A cold front approaches for the beginning of next week.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 730 PM Wednesday...
No significant changes required. Current forecast on track.
As of 130 PM Wednesday...
East to southeasterly flow this afternoon will continue eastern
upslope stratus over the southern mountains. This stratus will
breakup as the east-southeast flow lessens towards sunset.
Dry and warm high pressure will again dominate our weather with
clear skies tonight and sunny skies again on Thursday. Some
isolated River Valley fog is expected to form again in the
sheltered valleys of the WV northern mountains.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
as of 145 PM Wednesday...
Dry and above normal temperatures to continue in the short term
period with ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate the
eastern U.S. There could be an isolated shower during the period
from any weak disturbance passing, but overall, dry weather
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 150 PM Wednesday...
The dry spell continues this weekend. Sunday could be an
enhanced fire danger day, with low relative humidity and gusty winds out ahead
of approaching front, but red flag conditions not expected.
Chances for precipitation finally return to the area late Monday
night into Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the area.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 730 PM Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the
period except at ekn where shallow fog may develop by early
morning. Winds remain easterly to southeasterly less than 6kts
except 6 to 11kts at bkw.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Friday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: fog may not materialize at ekn.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h M M l l M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 00z Friday...
early morning River Valley fog possible each morning, especially