Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 krlx 181828 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 PM EDT sun Aug 18 2019

Synopsis...
disturbance brushes across north tonight. Hot weather continues
for the first half of the week. Cold front crosses by late in
the week.

&&

Near term /through Monday/...
as of 135 PM Sunday...

Upper level shortwave trough passing by to our north, with the
southern extent of precipitation just brushing across the
northern forecast area. Also expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across the mountains this afternoon.

Another upper level shortwave trough crosses the north tonight.
This is associated with the showers and storms stretching from
Michigan southwest into the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon.
Most high res models are showing the remnants of this making
into the far northwest forecast area overnight so added isolated to
scattered showers.

Expecting another hot and humid day on Monday, with popup
showers and storms for the afternoon and evening. The highest
heat index values, in the upper 90s, are expected across the
southwestern forecast area.

&&

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 211 PM Sunday...

The combination of an increase in moisture depth and lowering of
height fields on Tuesday should allow for a good scattering of
diurnally driven convection. Given the high temps and higher
moisture values, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible
nearly anywhere in the area. Max temps on Tuesday should be
similar to monday's values.

Wednesday will be another very warm and humid day, although
thicker cloud cover and continued diurnally driven convection
should result in a very minor reduction of Max temps values.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 218 PM Sunday...

A cold front is prog to move through the area sometime on
Thursday, with the GFS being a little faster with frontal passage than
the European model (ecmwf) and CMC. A band of showers and storms is likely to
develop along the front, some possibly strong to severe
(depending on the timing of the front).

If the front pushes far enough south of the area, a very
pleasant late week airmass should be in place. Even if the front
stalls along the southern cwa, the high moisture values should
be replaced with lower dewpoints and Max temps should be much
lower than what has been occurring this weekend.

&&

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
as of 135 PM Sunday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storm are expected across the
northwest and eastern forecast area today, but these are not
anticipated to impact any taf sites. Pkb, ekn and bkw have the
best chance of a passing shower or storm.

Stuck close to what happened last night with regards to dense
valley fog tonight. One difference is additional clouds are
expected across the northwest, so did not go as low with
visibility at pkb.

VFR expected after any fog dissipates Monday. Once again,
isolated to scattered showers are possible. Did not mention
these in taf yet since the bulk of the activity should be after
18z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Monday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: a thunderstorm may impact pkb, ekn or bkw
late this afternoon. Timing and density of fog may vary
overnight tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 18z Monday...
IFR possible with showers and storms mid week.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rh/mz

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations