Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 151731
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT sun Sep 15 2019
high pressure in control tonight. Mainly dry cold front crosses
Monday. High pressure and upper ridge dominate latter half of
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 131 am Sunday...
Latest satellite imagery shows some mid and high clouds were
pushing across the area.
These clouds were associated with a mid-level disturbance and
weak cold front which were pushing toward the region.
This trend should continue with the clouds increasing in areal
coverage overnight. Could still see some dense valley fog.
However, confidence is low.
The disturbance and cold front are expected to push east across
the area on Monday. Airmass should be quite dry. However, model
blend suggests scattered showers may be possible across the
northern half of our area. Have gone ahead and added slight
chance probability of precipitation to match up with the neighbors.
Model blend temps were a little warm for highs today.
Combination of additional clouds and precipitation should be
enough to hold temperature down below guidance as well on
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 210 am Sunday...
Models, mainly the GFS and NAM, show a weak front sinking into
the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with a potential for
isolated showers. The European model (ecmwf) is less robust with this feature and
keeps things dry. Opted to include some low end slight chance
pops across the northeastern forecast area with this on Monday
afternoon. Also added some slight chance pops across the
central and southern mountains Tuesday afternoon as the front
continues through. Temperatures will be on the warm side through
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 210 am Sunday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the latter
half of the week dry, with temperatures continuing to run above
Aviation /18z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 131 PM Sunday...
Have made very few changes to the previous forecast. Widespread
VFR conditions expected through at least 07z tonight.
High pressure pushes east early tonight. Wind flow at the
surface will remain calm or light and variable today before
becoming light south tonight.
IFR/LIFR in dense River Valley fog could materialize once again
during the predawn hours Monday. However, there could be enough
southerly wind above the surface to preclude the dense fog in
most of the favored locations. Have gone ahead and added dense
fog in and around kekn between 06 UTC & 13 UTC.
Weak cold front is expected to push across the area on Monday.
May see some spotty showers across portions of southeast Ohio
and the northern counties of West Virginia after 15 UTC.
However, VFR conditions should prevail in most locations.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Monday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: dense valley fog could be more widespread
than forecast late tonight.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Monday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible Tuesday morning.