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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

An upper level ridge and hot air mass is in place and will remain
over the area through Wednesday. Temperatures are in the lower to
the middle 90s. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s daily
through Wednesday. Some record highs could be approached during
this time.

Dry air in place will mix down which may help heat index values
from getting out of hand, but readings in the middle 90s to
around 100 degrees will occur each afternoon through Wednesday.
Lows in the 60s will occur tonight and Tuesday night.

A few isolated showers are developing across portions of southern
Missouri. Coverage will be limited and much of the energy
available will be used overcoming the dry area. There could be a
few rumbles of thunder but most locations will remain dry. Cannot
rule out an isolated shower or two again Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons as well.

Winds will generally be out of the south through Wednesday under
mostly sunny skies.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

An upper level trough will move into the northwestern U.S. By mid
week then move east by the end of the week flattening out and
weakening the upper ridge over our region. The better upper level
support and lift will initially remain west of the area, but with
moisture returning into the area and the ridge flattening, some
scattered showers and storms will be possible both Thursday and
Friday mainly in the afternoon and evening.

The trough will continue to slowly move towards the area this
weekend as a tropical disturbance moves out of the Gulf towards
the the area. A front will sag south into the region and interact
with the tropical moisture to produce showers/storms this weekend.

Another upper level low will move onto the West Coast this
weekend. Medium range models differ on the how quickly it will
shift east. The faster track will keep chances for rain in the
area into early next week, but uncertainty remains in the timing
and track.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A few diurnally driven showers formed this afternoon and have
continued developing along an outflow boundary. Updrafts quickly
being killed off by drier air aloft and showers not lasting long
enough for lightning to develop. Showers expected to miss the
terminal locations and should be about done by 00z-01z. VFR
conditions expected through the period.

&&

Climate...
issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

With temperatures expected to warm into the lower and middle 90s
through Wednesday, here is a list of record highs/most recent
year set through wednesday:

Today Tuesday Wednesday
Springfield 95/1980 96/1953 94/1960
Joplin 98/1980 95/1953 96/1952
West Plains 99/1980 97/1953 96/1972
Rolla/Vichy 96/1954 97/1953 95/1953

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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