Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ksgf 231104 
afdsgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
604 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)

Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over far southern Missouri
this morning as low level baroclinicity was positioned across the
area. This feature will continue to be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms throughout today. Not all areas will receive rain,
however, locations that do receive rain could experience some
decent rates as precipitable water values are ranging from 1.6 to
1.8 inches.

We considered a Flash Flood Watch, however,confidence is not high
enough that one is needed. Monitoring precipitation trends and
localized pockets of heavy rain will be needed through the day.

Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s today.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through tonight as well.
Overnight lows in the 70s are expected.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)

The frontal system will linger across the region as we head into
Saturday. This will force US to keep precipitation chances going
through Saturday. Perhaps a better coverage of rainfall will
occur Saturday evening and night, as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the west.

A 2nd speed Max arrives during the day on Sunday, bringing another
shot of rainfall. Amounts could begin to accumulate pretty high in
some areas as we head into the new work week since rain looks to
continue impacting the region through Tuesday morning.

Medium range models has Continental air spreading through the
Ozarks Tuesday, bringing an end to the rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday.

There are some early indications that the first part of Labor Day
weekend could be active, although this could change since we're
still several day out.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends over the next 24 hours.

A frontal system was positioned across the Ozarks, and will
continue to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms through the
next few days.

Low clouds and visibilities are expected at any airfields that are
directly impacted by thunderstorms. Otherwise expect surface winds
to be light and variable.

Safe travels.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations