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fxus63 ksgf 180510 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1110 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

..06z aviation update...

Short term...(tonight and monday)
issued at 245 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Models depicting good short term consistency with a broad western
ridge and a sharp trough overhead. Patchy light rain has exited
the Eastern Ozarks ahead of a cold front approaching I-44 at 20z.
Surface temperatures are a bit odd in that they are warmer in
behind the front as skies clear.

Weakening winds and clear skies overnight will set the stage for
good radiational cooling...though lows will only fall to near
climatological normals.

A shortwave in the northwest flow will descend quickly across the
plains on Monday. As was the case today...any rainfall that is
generated will be light given the lack of moisture.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 245 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Slightly above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday as
the ridge builds into the Central Plains and a mean trough digs
into the western US.

Deep moisture will flow northward into the forecast area on
Wednesday as a shortwave is ejected out of the western trough
followed by a cold front associated with a northern stream wave.
Models are showing some disagreements with these features...though
confidence is sufficient to expect the southerly flow to result in
the potential for some instability late Wednesday into Thursday.

The front will lose its support and linger over northern Arkansas
Friday into Saturday. Overrunning return flow with temperatures
in the 30s to set up as the western trough fills and advects

The weekend will then end dry with a modified Pacific air mass in


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1058 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR flight conditions will persist throughout this taf period,
although there will likely remain some high-level clouds,
especially into mid-day Monday. There could even be some
scattered light rain showers Monday afternoon, but precipitation
will have a difficult time reaching the ground with cloud ceilings
forecast above 6 kft.

Surface winds will back from northwest to southwest over the next
6 hours. Meanwhile, winds speeds will increase to 10-15 kts by
Monday afternoon across the jln and sgf terminals.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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