Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ksgf 250734 
afdsgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 am CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 152 am CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Weather through tonight will be driven by remnants of the mesoscale convective system
currently over central Kansas and the parent shortwave.

Impressive looking bowing segment currently north/northwest of Wichita is
expected to continue following the instability gradient to the se,
putting southeast Kansas and far SW MO in the path with arrival around
sunrise. Think there is a low end isolated damaging wind threat,
but overall it should be gradually weakening and hasn't produced
substantial wind reports recently.

Looking toward the rest of the day, outflow associated with
morning convection move along the SW periphery of the County Warning Area should
lead to additional convection across much of the rest of the area.
There is a low end, isolated severe threat with that if
sufficient instability can develop, mainly over southwestern
portions of the County Warning Area. Instability should be too limited for much
of a hail threat, but some damaging wind gusts are possible. Of
course, heavy rain is a threat and any training precipitation
could result in flash flooding. Cloud cover and precip should
continue the trend of temperatures being well below normal with
highs around 80 today.

Shortwave energy moving through this evening and tonight will lead
to continued precipitation that will diminish from west to east. Could
see some excessive rainfall, so will keep the limited flash flood
potential in the hwo/ehwo.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 152 am CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Southerly flow and clearing skies will lead to near normal
temperatures on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Increasing surface dew points will combine with those temps to
give Max heat indices from the upper 80s east to near 100 west.
The resulting buildup of instability will bring a risk for severe
thunderstorms Monday evening into Monday night as a synoptically
well support cold front moves through. Greatest severe threat is
over the northwest half of the cwa, where Storm Prediction Center has a day 2 slight risk.

Behind the front there will be some low end precip chances, mainly
across the south, but drier weather than what we have been seeing
the last few days is certainly favored. Temperatures will drop
back below normal on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Low cloud cover will remain across the region overnight with
scattered showers. Ceilings will for the most part be MVFR with
areas of IFR. Improving conditions will not occur until the
afternoon Sunday as a storm system approaches the region but
remains west of the area.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations