Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus66 ksgx 111026 
afdsgx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
226 am PST Wed Dec 11 2019

Synopsis...
building high pressure will bring dry, mild weather through
Friday. Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days. A weak
trough moving over Southern California this weekend will bring
cooler weather along with gusty winds in the mountains and
deserts. Offshore flow and higher pressure will bring some
northeast winds Monday and a warming trend.

&&

Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...

High clouds are exiting stage right this morning as patchy low
clouds appear and disappear intermittently near the coast. We are
looking at fair weather this upcoming week, but with a variety of
trends in clouds and breezes. A weak shortwave trough moving
through the state this morning will be followed by a high pressure
ridge over California. That will warm our air mass some, enough
to boost high temperatures 5-10 degrees above average Thursday and
Friday. A mix of patchy high and patchy low clouds will continue.
The jet stream drops southward this weekend, breaking down the
ridge and energizing the westerly onshore flow. It will be much
cooler this weekend as a result. Increased humidity will generate
some clouds from the coast to the mountains. There are hints of
very light precipitation Saturday evening, but not enough to
forecast showers yet. The main impact from this trough will be
strong winds in the mountains and deserts with gusts that could
peak over 50 mph in spots. Some offshore flow gets started Sunday
and peaks Monday morning, but recent guidance has dialed back the
strength of offshore winds. Current estimates are for top gusts
reaching around 35 mph in the wind- prone foothills. High pressure
aloft builds a bit, making for a modest warming trend next week
with high temps inching above average. After a dry nine days or
so, there is some guidance showing the next Pacific trough drawing
moisture from the southwest for precipitation next Wednesday or
Thursday, but there is little model consensus or consistency in
that solution.

&&

Aviation...
110945z...coastal areas...sct-bkn low clouds at times through 16z
with bases 700-1000 ft mean sea level. Any cigs at coastal airports will be
brief.

Otherwise, scattered-broken clouds above 20000 ft mean sea level through Wed night with
mostly unrestricted vis.

&&

Marine...
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday. A large,
long period west-northwest swell will create combined seas of 8 to
11 ft Friday through Sunday. This could create hazardous boating
conditions. West-northwest winds will increase over the outer
coastal waters Saturday through Sunday with gusts of 25 kt possible.

&&

Beaches...
a west northwest swell with a period of 16-17 seconds will bring
elevated to high surf and strong rip currents to the beaches Friday
through Sunday. Current projections are for 5-7 foot surf with local
sets to 8 feet, especially in southern San Diego County. Swell
periods are likely to be in the 16-17 second range. A beach hazards
statement is in effect from 10 am Friday through 4 PM Sunday.

&&

Skywarn...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...beach hazards statement from Friday morning through Sunday
afternoon for Orange County coastal areas-San Diego County
coastal areas.

Pz...none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations