Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksgx 182018
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
118 PM PDT sun Aug 18 2019
strengthening high pressure will bring a warming trend inland
through Wednesday. Very hot inland weather Wednesday will
diminish slightly toward the coming weekend. Coastal clouds will
be on the decrease each night and morning, then increase later
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Low clouds took some time to clear from Orange County this morning.
A wisp of high clouds has accented our skies today, but we're all
looking at plenty of blue up there. Look for low clouds to have
nearly as much coverage as they did this morning, but after Monday
morning clouds probably won't make it into the inland Empire for
a while. That's because high pressure aloft will build over the
southwest and onshore flow will decrease the next few days.
Coastal clouds will remain coastal each night and morning, and may
even be reduced to patchy coverage Wednesday and Thursday. We're
looking at a decent warming trend this week. Wednesday will be the
hottest day, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. That
means around 115 in the lower deserts and 100 to 105 in the inland
Empire and High Desert. The latest guidance has backed off the
intensity of the heat. A fly or two gets in the soup, weakening
the high pressure slightly. Friday and Saturday there is some
increase in monsoon moisture. A weaker high and increased moisture
will both help the temperatures taper off some as we head into
next weekend. Will the moisture be enough for thunderstorms in the
mountains and deserts? So far it doesn't have a strong enough
case to warrant including those chances in the forecast yet. High
pressure seems to build again next weekend, keeping temperatures
slightly above average.
181930z...coast/valleys...sct clouds at or abv 20000 ft mean sea level with
unrestricted vis this afternoon. Low clouds likely to return to
coastal taf sites 02z-05z Mon, with broken-overcast cigs around 1500 ft
mean sea level and tops to 2500 ft mean sea level. Low clouds could spread up to 30
miles inland tonight and may reach kont and ksbd 12z-15z with cig
and vis restrictions. Areas of vis 1-3 miles where clouds and
terrain intersect, and 3-5 miles vcnty kont and ksbd. Expect
clearing inland around 16z and at coastal taf sites around 17z
Mountains/deserts...few-sct high clouds at or abv 20,000 ft mean sea level and
unrestricted vis through Monday.
no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...excessive heat watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday
evening for apple and Lucerne valleys-Coachella Valley-San
Diego County deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.