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fxus64 ksjt 160838 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
338 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Short term...
(today and tonight)

Early this morning, a stationary boundary was located over northwest
Texas, while a 500mb low & likely an mesoscale convective vortex was located over the OK and
Texas panhandles. These ingredients were driving a severe mesoscale convective system across
much of Oklahoma and north central Texas. In addition, this
activity produced a significant outflow boundary that has parked
itself roughly along the I-20 corridor. The dryline was located
from just south of Roswell to near Presidio. Temperatures were
generally in the 70s as of 3am, with dewpoints in the 60s.

Patchy morning stratus should burn off by mid-morning, and southerly
winds will once again pick up across the area. 850mb temperatures
should range from 18-23 deg c, which should allow daytime highs to
reach the mid to upper 90s, depending on cloud cover. However, the
main event appears to be another round of thunderstorms expected
later this evening. Both the NAM and GFS show a fairly Stout cap in
place across west central Texas, and MUCAPE values should reach
around 4000-5000 j/kg by late this afternoon. Some isolated showers
and/or t'storms will be possible in places where the cap breaks
early, but the best chance will be when a 500mb shortwave moves
through West Texas right around 00z. At that time, activity will
likely develop along what is left of the aforementioned outflow
boundary and move southeastward. Models are also showing the dryline
nosing its way into the Concho Valley late this afternoon, which may
also help to initiate thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center day 1 outlook has much
of the area under a slight risk, favoring much of the Big Country
and Concho Valley with a wind and hail threat. This is consistent
with several hi-res models, which show widespread convection
exploding after 00z, possibly developing into an mesoscale convective system over The Hill
Country later in the evening. For this reason, pops were increased
to 40-50 percent in this area tonight.

Long term...
(monday through saturday)

Unstable air mass will continue across the area for Monday and
Tuesday. Despite some ridging aloft working its way into the area,
at least a few diurnal afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible each day. Will continue the slight chance to chance probability of precipitation
in place across most of west central Texas. A more Summer-like
pattern hen takes over for the remainder of the work week, with
drier conditions at the surface and a thermal ridge building
across the area. Afternoon highs will creep up to near or just
above the century mark for Wednesday through Friday. GFS guidance
has San Angelo at 108 on Thursday and this seems a bit high
considering the green vegetation still in place, but readings
above 100 degrees is likely. Models suggest the thermal ridge
breaks down a little for next weekend so temperatures may drop
back down into the 90s by then.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 94 70 91 70 / 30 40 20 20
San Angelo 97 70 94 71 / 20 40 20 10
Junction 96 71 94 71 / 20 40 20 5
Brownwood 93 70 90 70 / 30 50 30 20
Sweetwater 94 70 91 71 / 20 30 20 20
Ozona 93 69 91 70 / 20 30 10 5


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

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