Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KSJT 162308 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and southeasterly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tuesday) Near persistence conditions continue under upper ridging. With a well developed cumulus field over the region each afternoon, there is an outside chance of brief shower or thunderstorm, but potential too low to include the forecast. Highs continue in the low to mid 90s with lows 65 to 70. 04 LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) The weak tropical disturbance currently just off the Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon is expected to move inland by Tuesday night or Wednesday, and then north through East Texas later in the week. The upper level trough currently over the northwestern U.S. will be replaced by a more powerful trough, which will then push southeast into the Rocky Mountains. This will cause southwest flow over our area to increase, pushing upper ridging east, and in turn keeping the tropical disturbance east of our area. Although we could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in our southeastern counties Wednesday and Wednesday night from the disturbance, most of the activity associated with this system will take place east of our area. Later in the week, as the western trough moves east toward the central U. S., shortwave energy will move across our area in southwest flow, and interact with the plentiful Gulf Moisture to give much of the area an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday. This is not expected to be a widespread, or heavy rain event however. Most locations likely will not see rainfall, and those that do are expected to receive one half inch or less. As we move into the weekend, the rain chances move farther to the north and west, with our weather remaining generally dry. Temperatures will continue to average above normal, with highs mainly in the 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 5 San Angelo 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 0 5 Junction 67 95 68 95 / 5 5 5 20 Brownwood 68 93 68 93 / 0 5 5 20 Sweetwater 70 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 5 Ozona 67 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.