Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 211817
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
217 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Near term [through today]...
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states is producing predominantly
easterly winds over our area on its southern periphery. This pattern
will keep conditions dry and near seasonal temperatures, with highs
in the upper 80s and around 90 across much of our area this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies and lows in the mid- to-upper 60s tonight.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
Fair weather is expected during the short term. Deep layer ridging
gradually shifts west of the area, which causes the low-level flow to
back from east to north on Monday. Overall, sunny and dry. Conditions
may become more favorable for the development of some patchy fog by
Monday morning, but coverage looks limited at this time. Temperatures
will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday, a
few degrees above normal.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
A weak boundary approaches from the north on Tuesday and stalls
across the area on Wednesday. Despite the boundary and narrow band
of higher precipitable water, deep layer ridging remains dominant
across the area, so any lift will be limited. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower mainly north of I-10 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
it remains stable enough to inhibit any thunder at this point.
The pattern looks to become more favorable for the development of
patchy fog on Tuesday morning where skies are clear, given sounding
profiles. Will hold off mentioning in the forecast for now, given
confidence is not high.
With the gradient weakening on Tuesday and a more robust onshore
flow developing, humidity levels will begin to increase mainly to
the south of I-10, and persist into Saturday. Temperatures also
moderate with the area under the influence of a deep layer ridge,
remaining anomalously warm in the low to mid 90s thru Saturday.
This could lead to heat indices up to around 105 at times in the
Florida Panhandle through the period.
Precip chances look minimal Thursday through Saturday, with a dry
stretch of weather expected.
[through 18z sunday]
Easterly flow and VFR conditions through the period. East winds
through this evening will gust around 15 knots at times, veering
southeast at ecp by late this afternoon, decreasing to around 5
knots overnight. There is a potential for low clouds at tlh and
vld Sun morning, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR attm.
Strong easterly flow over the coastal waters to continue through
tonight, with winds around 20 knots, gusting to 25 knots. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters
beyond 20 nautical miles through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, small
craft should exercise caution. Tranquil boating conditions are
expected to return on Monday and continue through the forecast
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
A dry stretch of weather is expected to continue over the next
week with above average temperatures. Portions of the region
are at less than 50 percent of normal precipitation over the
past 30 days, and are experiencing abnormally dry conditions to
moderate drought in some cases. Most local rivers also have
stream flows below normal levels. No flooding issues expected.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 65 91 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 69 88 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 63 89 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 64 89 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 66 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 70 85 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
coastal Bay-coastal Franklin-south Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for Apalachee Bay or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
line Florida out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT /10 am CDT/ Sunday for
coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach Florida out
20 nm-waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20
to 60 nm-waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach Florida from
20 to 60 nm-waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
County line Florida from 20 to 60 nm.