Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 162308
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
608 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019
[through 00z monday]
Tricky part of the tafs will be the height of the ceilings and when
they will completely clear out. Keeping a slightly more
pessimistic forecast than current observations due to ceilings
lowering slightly as we cool and the sun GOES down. Most sites
should remain MVFR, possibly low end VFR, through the taf period.
Vld is the exception and may drop down to around 900 feet
overnight. Ecp and dhn should remain VFR and/or clear. No rain in
the forecast and winds will be light out of the northeast.
Previous discussion [312 PM est]...
Near term [through tonight]...
A strong upper low moving off the southeast coast is responsible
for low-level cyclogenesis in the western Atlantic. Moist, north-
northeasterly upslope flow over an eastern Seaboard cold pool has
kept cloud cover entrenched across much of the region today. In
some places light drizzle still continues this late into the
afternoon. A 10+ degree temperature gradient exist between sunny
and cloudy regions, with mid 60s across the Panhandle and
southeast Alabama, and upper 40s to low 50s in the Suwannee
Valley. Lows will fall into the low to mid 40s region-wide this
evening, though cloud cover will remain in place, and possibly
spread a bit further west.
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
As the coastal low pressure system moves up the mid-Atlantic
coastline, a full Continental U.S. Shortwave will move through the plains and
the Mississippi Valley. A dry stable airmass will preclude this
strong frontal system from having much of an effect on the
sensible weather locally. The main effect will be to keep the
eastern Continental U.S. Trough in place, resulting in below average
temperatures through the weekend into early next week.
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
By mid-week deep layer ridging will result in continued dry
conditions, but with temperatures climbing back to more seasonable
levels. It won't be until next weekend that our next frontal
system could result in rain chances locally.
Hazardous marine conditions will continue through tonight before
winds and seas gradually lower. By tomorrow night, winds around 10
knots should prevail and are expected to last through much of next
Low dispersion indices are forecast on Sunday, otherwise hazardous
fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several
Rain is not expected over the next week, and flooding of any sort
will not be a concern.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 44 65 43 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 49 67 48 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 42 63 41 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 42 63 43 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 43 63 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 45 66 46 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 49 65 50 66 47 / 0 0 0 10 0