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000 
FXUS62 KTAE 061522
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1022 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs to about 20% for AL zones through 18z based on 
current radar observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on 
track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [534 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level shortwave located over the southern Plains early this 
morning will move rapidly eastward across the southeast states by 
the end of today. Moisture return will be limited ahead of it, but 
there appears to be enough lift to support the chance for a 
weakening area of showers to move into the western and northwestern 
sections of the area this afternoon. High temperatures are expected 
to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

While the upper shortwave will continue moving rapidly eastward 
tonight into Saturday, most models leave behind a lower level trough 
or weak area of surface low pressure south of the Florida panhandle 
for tonight into Saturday. This will keep a chance of showers going 
across the area through Saturday. Instability appears to be confined 
to the coastal waters where a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, 
but any thunderstorm activity currently looks like it will remain 
just offshore due to the limited instability. A chance of showers 
appears to continue across the western portions of the area with a 
similar pattern on Sunday. Afternoon highs are expected to range 
from the mid 60s to low 70s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 
40s to mid 50s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF agree on enhanced rain chances in the 
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as another cold front pushes through 
the area in association with a broad upper level trough. Instability 
looks minimal at this time, so thunderstorms were kept out of the 
forecast for now. Dry weather is expected behind this system for 
Thursday. Models then diverge on the potential for another system 
late in the week or early next weekend just beyond the 7 day period. 
Above average temperatures are expected early in the week ahead of 
the front, then near or slightly below average behind the front for 
the second half of the week.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Saturday] Cloud cover will increase across the area 
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, although
ceilings are expected to remain VFR today. Scattered light 
showers are possible this afternoon around DHN, this evening 
around ECP and ABY, and late tonight near TLH.


.MARINE...

A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop just south of the 
Florida panhandle this weekend. This will keep conditions unsettled 
with rain chances and easterly winds increasing to near advisory 
levels Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will gradually improve 
early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns at this time. Rainfall amounts over 
the next several days are expected to be mainly on the light side.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  50  66  52  70 /  10  20  40  20  20 
Panama City   72  57  68  56  70 /  10  40  40  20  40 
Dothan        67  50  63  50  64 /  40  40  30  20  20 
Albany        67  49  64  51  64 /  20  30  30  20  20 
Valdosta      70  46  67  50  68 /   0  20  40  20  10 
Cross City    71  46  69  53  74 /   0  10  40  20  10 
Apalachicola  70  60  68  57  69 /  10  30  40  20  30 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD

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