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000 
FXUS62 KTAE 140642
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The combination of a stalled frontal boundary and increasing 
moisture with weak upper disturbances approaching the area will 
allow for the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms to 
develop today. However, rain chances will remain low (around 20 
percent or less today) until greater upper level forcing arrives 
starting late tonight. Afternoon high temperatures today will 
generally be in the 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels, near zonal flow will be over the region until a 
trough moves in on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal 
boundary will linger over the region until a cold front moves 
through on Wednesday. Chances for rain and thunder will increase 
tonight. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be 
tomorrow through Wednesday evening with POPs up to 80 percent. Skies 
will be mostly cloudy. Highs will be mainly in the 80s with upper 
70s in the northernmost counties. Lows will be in the 60s and lower 
70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels, a trough will remain over the Southeast until a 
ridge builds in on Friday. At the surface, cold, dry air will move 
in behind the front on Wednesday night. Wet weather may return by 
the weekend as another low pressure system approaches. The best 
chance for rain will be Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the 
70s on Thursday. Highs will return to the 80s by Friday or Saturday. 
Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

A scattered to broken cloud deck is expected to prevail through 
the period with occasional MVFR ceilings this morning. VFR is 
expected to prevail across the area this afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...

Light southeasterly winds will increase slightly by tomorrow. 
Moderate winds will be southwesterly by tomorrow night. Moderate 
winds will become northerly as a cold front moves through on 
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front is expected to bring the first widespread rainfall in 
over a month across the area from Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the 
front, a dry airmass is expected for Thursday and Friday, but 
relative humidity values are expected to stay above red flag
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River levels are low. Rain chances will increase tonight but the 
best chance for rain will be tomorrow through Wednesday evening. 
Forecast rainfall totals range from 0.25-0.5 in the FL Big Bend to 1 
to 3 inches in parts of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. With ongoing 
drought conditions, flooding is not a concern.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  87  70  87 /  20  30  40  60  60 
Panama City   87  72  86  73  85 /  20  30  40  70  60 
Dothan        83  67  81  68  80 /  20  50  70  80  50 
Albany        84  69  80  70  81 /  20  50  70  80  50 
Valdosta      87  69  83  70  83 /  20  40  60  60  60 
Cross City    88  69  88  72  86 /   0  10  20  50  70 
Apalachicola  84  72  84  73  83 /  10  10  30  60  60 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...McD

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