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fxus62 ktae 230009 
afdtae

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
809 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Update...

No changes needed to the forecast. Preliminary peek at the 00z tae
sounding shows a very dry atmosphere in the wake of the cold
front. This will allow lows to drop into the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

Previous discussion [722 PM edt]...

Near term [through tonight]...

Cold front will continue to move east across the remainder of
southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend during the next few
hours. Much cooler and drier air will usher in behind the
front tonight. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper
40s and low 50s as a result, which is actually around normal for
late October.



Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...

Pleasant weather will persist through Wednesday as the region
remains under quasi-zonal flow. Afternoon high temperatures will
run in the low 70s. The aforementioned cold front will start to
lift northward as a warm front on Thursday in response to a
shortwave trough diving out of the central rockies. As a result,
temperates will rise once again along with cloud cover and rain
chances, generally across the Florida Panhandle and southern
Alabama wiregrass.



Long term [friday through tuesday]...

Major differences continue between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) regarding
the next weather system. The European model (ecmwf) continues to cut off an
upper low over North Texas and lifts it to the NE of the area
while the GFS brings in a large scale trough to the region
with multiple lows moving in from the Gulf which would result
in more widespread rain beginning Thursday night and continuing
at least into Saturday. General model blends tend to favor
slower/more western solutions regarding pops, thus will continue
to favor these in the official forecast with this package. Friday
and Saturday look wet and active, while Sunday through early next
week generally look mostly dry. As mentioned previously, there
remains considerable uncertainty in the overall pattern, so
changes in the forecast are possible as we move through the week.
Increased cloudiness will yield average high temperatures (upper
70s to near 80) and warm overnight lows (low to mid 60s) across
the region through the period.



Aviation...
[through 00z thursday]

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the taf period.



Marine...

Winds and seas will remain at cautionary levels through much of the
remainder of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Thursday into Friday. Scattered storms will remain
possible over the weekend.



Fire weather...

Drier air will be in place tomorrow but relative
humidity will remain above critical thresholds. No fire weather
concerns.



Hydrology...
dry Wednesday and Thursday with the next system on tap later this
week into the weekend. Rainfall amounts arent overly impressive
with totals of an inch or less.



Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 50 74 55 77 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
Panama City 54 74 58 77 68 / 0 0 0 20 40
Dothan 46 71 49 74 63 / 0 0 0 20 60
Albany 49 72 50 75 62 / 0 0 0 10 40
Valdosta 51 73 54 78 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 55 77 60 81 69 / 0 0 0 20 10
Apalachicola 54 73 60 77 70 / 0 0 0 20 40

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 3 am EDT /2 am CDT/ Wednesday for
coastal Bay-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Update...scholl
near term...scholl
short term...scholl
long term...scholl

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