Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 231710
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
110 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
[through 18z tuesday]
VFR conditions with light winds will persist throughout the taf
Previous discussion [901 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the area
today. Skies will be mostly clear with afternoon high temperatures
expected to reach the low to mid 90s across most of the area, except
upper 80s along the coast.
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
The upper level ridge over the local region will gradually flatten
with the flow becoming zonal by Tuesday night/Wednesday. In the
lower levels, the surface ridge will slip to the south allowing a
weak cold front to drop down into south Georgia and stall over or
just north of our northernmost zones on Wednesday. Moisture will
be somewhat lacking ahead of this feature but with daytime heating
a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon. Otherwise, above normal temperatures with near record
highs and dry conditions will continue.
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
Nearly zonal flow in the mid/upper levels will continue through
Thursday before deep layer ridging returns through the remainder
of the period. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be
possible each afternoon, hot and dry conditions can be expected to
close out the month of September. Daily record high temperatures
may be tied or broken at various locations across the tri-state
region with heat indices at or above 100 degrees most days.
Tranquil boating conditions are expected to continue through the
forecast period with winds below 15 knots and seas less than 3
Although it will remain mainly dry for the next several days, red
flag conditions are not expected with relative humidity values
remaining above critical levels.
A dry stretch of weather is expected to continue over the next
week with well above average temperatures. Portions of the area
are at less than 50 percent of normal precipitation over the
past 30 days, and are experiencing abnormally dry conditions to
moderate drought in some cases. Most local rivers also have
stream flows below normal levels. No flooding issues expected.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 66 96 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 20 0
Panama City 71 92 74 91 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 66 94 67 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 0
Albany 66 93 67 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 0
Valdosta 64 94 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 20 0
Cross City 66 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 10 0
Apalachicola 71 89 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT tonight for coastal