Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 230719
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
319 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
Near term [through today]...
After the coolest start to the day since last April, temperatures
will rebound into the 70s this afternoon with mostly clear skies as
dry surface high pressure dominates the region.
Short term [tonight through friday]...
Surface high pressure will remain centered north of the area
tonight, providing mostly clear skies and light winds. A cool and
dry airmass will continue across the region with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s across the far north to upper 50s
across the southeast Big Bend.
Surface high pressure will slide eastward for Thursday with winds
becoming easterly. An increase in surface dewpoints will be felt
with some Atlantic moisture advecting into the area, but skies
should remain rain free with afternoon highs ranging from the mid
70s to low 80s.
By Friday, a slow moving upper trough west of the area will begin
to influence the local weather. A weak, non-tropical wave of low
pressure will likely develop in the northwest Gulf with rain
developing mainly west of the forecast area. The 00z GFS and Euro
are in slightly better agreement compared to previous days with
the speed of this system, although the GFS is still faster. Given
a slightly slower progression more like the Euro, the official
forecast is not as high on rain chances for Friday, with 30-50%
chances across most the area and 60% chances across the far
western counties. High temperatures are expected to be mostly in
the 80s across the area, except mid to upper 70s across the
northwest where more cloud cover is expected.
Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
The 00z GFS remains more progressive with the pattern overall
compared to the 00z Euro. This spells some uncertainty in rain
chances through the period, but a blend of all of the guidance
suggests low end rain chances are possible each day through the
period with a relatively moist airmass in the area. However, the
heaviest activity is currently expected to remain west of the
forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above
average, particularly at night with above average low temperatures
given the moist airmass.
[through 06z thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period.
Northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots will continue this morning.
Although winds will diminish slightly this afternoon, they will
remain elevated and veer to easterly on Thursday and eventually to
southeasterly late on Friday with elevated seas as well.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Although a chance of rain exists across the area each day from
Friday through early next week, total amounts are expected to be
relatively light with the heaviest rainfall currently expected to
remain west of the forecast area.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 74 52 78 66 83 / 0 0 10 20 30
Panama City 73 54 78 67 82 / 0 0 10 30 50
Dothan 71 49 76 63 78 / 0 0 10 30 50
Albany 72 50 76 64 79 / 0 0 10 30 30
Valdosta 73 53 77 66 82 / 0 0 10 10 30
Cross City 76 58 82 68 85 / 0 0 10 10 40
Apalachicola 73 58 77 69 80 / 0 0 10 30 40