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FXUS62 KTAE 112316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
616 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Cold front still on track to pass over the terminals tonight into
Tuesday. Used the latest HRRR for timing of the front, with shift
and gusty winds behind the front, timing of precipitation, and
cloud decks both ahead and behind the front. Expect some MVFR cigs
ahead of the front with IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys along and behind
the front and associated with rain. Gusty winds are expected
behind the front with speeds of 20-25 knots. Instability is low so
expecting mainly rain.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Clouds will increase rapidly tonight as a strong cold front 
approaches the area. Rain will accompany the front and likely
reach the western border of the forecast area within a couple of 
hours of sunrise. With limited instability, thunderstorms do not 
appear likely.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The strong cold front will clear the area during the day on 
Tuesday with gusty winds and falling temperatures during the day 
behind it. Strong cold advection on Tuesday night is expected to 
result in a light freeze across the northern and western portions 
of the area by Wednesday morning. In addition, since winds will 
stay somewhat elevated overnight, wind chill values will reach the
low to mid 20s across the northwest portions of the area Tuesday 
night. Despite mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, high temperatures 
are expected to remain in the 50s across the area with a cold 
airmass in place. This sets up another chilly night on Wednesday 
with overnight lows dipping close to freezing again across the 
northern portions of the area.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Models are in general agreement that an area of low pressure will 
develop along the Gulf coast in association with another upper
level shortwave towards the end of the week. Some timing and 
intensity differences remain in the guidance, but a chance of rain
appears to return at the end of the week.


A strong cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
Advisory conditions will occur across the entire area behind the 
front. Gusts will reach close to gale force, especially across the  
western waters. However, nearly all of the model derived wind gust
guidance keeps frequent gale force gusts west of the area, and 
forecast soundings from BUFKIT show momentum transfer wind gust 
potential mostly in the 30-33 knot range across our waters. Thus, 
we'll hold off on a gale warning for now. Winds and seas will 
remain elevated through at least Wednesday.


Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


There are no flooding issues expected for the next several days. 
Rainfall amounts through Tuesday are expected to be fairly light. 
There is more uncertainty with the potential Gulf low at the end
of the week, but area rivers are still running low overall and 
flooding is unlikely from that system as well.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   57  69  35  56  41 /  10  70  10   0  10 
Panama City   59  70  35  57  44 /  60  80   0   0   0 
Dothan        49  59  29  51  35 /  60  80   0   0   0 
Albany        54  61  32  51  36 /  20  90  10   0   0 
Valdosta      56  70  33  53  40 /   0  70  10   0  10 
Cross City    59  77  40  59  47 /   0  70  20   0   0 
Apalachicola  64  72  38  58  46 /  20  80  10   0  10 


FL...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for 
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Jackson-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for 
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-

AL...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for 

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday 
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to 
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From 
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal 
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for 
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton 
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico 
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to 
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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