Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 170726
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
326 am EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
Near term [through today]...
A pre-frontal trough may lead to an isolated thunderstorm in the
southeast Big Bend through late this afternoon. Behind this,
stratiform precipitation will gradually diminish as it moves
southeastward out of the western Florida Panhandle/southeast Alabama.
By late this afternoon/early evening, the focus of rain showers
shifts to the Southeast Florida Big Bend. A drying trend will take
place across the entire region early tonight.
With cold air advection in place, winds will remain elevated
tonight out of the northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures
will be several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid-40s
to mid-50s inland, to around 60 degrees along the Gulf Coast.
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the southeast tomorrow and
a trough will be over the region on Saturday. At the surface, high
pressure will be over the region until moisture returns tomorrow
evening ahead of a Gulf low. NHC has a 70 percent chance for
tropical cyclone formation with this Gulf low. Model guidance takes
this low into the north central or northeastern Gulf by tomorrow
night or Saturday. Regardless of tropical development the impacts to
the region will be about the same. Those impacts include: heavy rain
(1 to 3 inches) expected this weekend, minor to moderate coastal
flooding and dangerous rip currents. Rain chances will increase
tomorrow evening and remain elevated through Sunday morning. Highs
will be in the 70s tomorrow and Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s
tonight and upper 50s/lower 60s tomorrow night.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
In the upper levels, a weak ridge will build into the region late
Sunday. A deep trough will move into the southeast by Monday night.
A weak ridge will return by late week. At the surface, a Gulf low
will move out of the region by Sunday as weak high pressure moves
in. By Monday, moisture will start to increase ahead of the next low
pressure system. A cold front will move through on Tuesday and high
pressure will move in by Wednesday morning. The best chance for rain
will be Saturday night and early in the week when the cold front
moves through. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s until Tuesday and
Wednesday when highs dip into the 70s. Lows will be in the 60s, then
in the 50s after the cold front moves through.
[through 06z friday]
Expect light northerly to northwesterly wind around 7 kts and
clear skies through tomorrow night. VFR condition will prevail
across all terminals through the forecast period.
A disturbance in the Gulf may cause hazardous boating conditions
beginning tomorrow. This low is being monitored for potential
tropical development. Easterly or southeasterly winds will be strong
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Seas will be high up to 10-12 feet
offshore. Southwesterly winds will decrease on Saturday night. Early
next week moderate southerly winds will become northerly by midweek
as a cold front moves through.
Low dispersion values and min relative humidity values this afternoon, however,
red flag criteria will not be met. Pops increase overnight Friday.
Some river levels have increased slightly with the recent rains. A
wet pattern will return tomorrow evening as a Gulf low approaches
the region. This low will produce heavy downpours at times but it
looks like it will move through quickly with rain chances decreasing
by Sunday. Forecast rainfall totals range from 1 to 2.5 inches this
weekend with the higher totals near the coast. Ponding of water on
roadways will be likely at times. Flooding of low lying areas is
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 75 53 74 60 79 / 0 0 30 50 60
Panama City 77 59 74 64 80 / 0 10 50 60 70
Dothan 72 50 71 57 74 / 0 0 20 40 60
Albany 72 51 73 60 74 / 0 0 10 40 60
Valdosta 73 51 73 61 77 / 0 0 20 50 70
Cross City 79 57 76 64 81 / 0 10 30 60 70
Apalachicola 75 60 75 66 78 / 0 20 60 70 70