Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 151909
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
309 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon and evening
will be most prevalent about an axis defined by Cross City - Perry -
Tallahassee - Marianna - Dothan, where precipitation potential is
around 30 to 40 percent. With less high cloudiness tonight, patchy
fog may coverage may be greater compared to last night. Guidance
is indicating this potential is greatest across the western Florida
Panhandle and portions of southeast Alabama, where the forecast
reflects this. Temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle
Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
Deep layer ridging will allow above average high temperatures and
suppress rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated
and diurnal in nature, with higher coverage in our eastern counties.
Available moisture is expected to increase in our eastern areas on
Wednesday, resulting in slightly higher pops. Highs will be in the
mid-upper 90s, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees. Lows will
hover around the mid-70s.
Long term [thursday through monday]...
Despite the ridge remaining in place, increasing moisture will
return US to a typical Summer seabreeze pattern with near average
temperatures and pops. Highs in the mid-upper 90s will gradually
cool into the lower-90s, with lows remaining in the mid-70s. Heat
indices will approach advisory levels as we enter late week.
[through 18z tuesday]
Predominantly VFR conditions through the period. Brief
restrictions are possible in thunderstorms and rain at tlh and vld prior to 00z,
and around 10z in brief MVFR vsbys at vld. Winds mainly
at or below 10 knots through the period.
Southwest to west winds of 5 to 10 knots will prevail for most of
the period, becoming more north over the weekend. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms expected each day starting Wednesday.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
next several days as rhs will remain above critical levels across
the region. High dispersions are possible across western portions
of the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon as sufficient
transport winds and mixing heights will be in place. Low
dispersions will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across
portions of the eastern Big Bend where transport winds will be
A relatively dry stretch of weather featuring isolated precipitation
will end on Tuesday, then returning to a more seasonal distribution
thereafter into the first half of the weekend, with sea-breeze
driven afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for above average precip late this weekend into early next
week, but confidence is low in details. Aside from the typical,
localized poor drainage flooding from heavier downpours, there are
no other flooding concerns at this time.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 75 97 75 96 75 / 20 30 10 30 30
Panama City 77 91 77 91 77 / 0 10 0 20 10
Dothan 74 95 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 20 10
Albany 75 96 75 96 76 / 0 20 10 20 10
Valdosta 75 97 75 97 74 / 10 30 20 40 30
Cross City 75 95 76 93 76 / 20 30 20 30 30
Apalachicola 78 91 77 91 78 / 0 10 10 20 10
Florida...high rip current risk through late tonight for coastal Bay-
coastal Gulf-south Walton.