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FXUS62 KTAE 180521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1221 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Multilayer cloud decks both low level and high level exists over
the tri state region; low level deck between 030-060 moving from
east to west underneath 200-250 high level deck moving west to
east. TAF sites should remain mostly VFR but some MVFR cigs are
possible especially at ABY and perhaps TLH towards dawn. Light
winds are expected through the TAF period.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The brief period of low amplitude ridging aloft will be replaced
by a highly amplified eastern CONUS trough as a shortwave moves
through the Mississippi Valley overnight. With little surface
forcing, a relatively stable lower troposphere, and a moisture
starved frontal system aloft, no rain is expected as the wave
moves through the eastern CONUS. The main sensible weather 
response will be the development of low clouds tonight as dry air 
aloft overspreads a moist boundary layer. The cloud cover should 
keep temperatures in the upper 40s region-wide.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

With the eastern CONUS trough aloft and light or northwesterly
flow near the surface, below average temperatures both day and
night are expected. Dry conditions will continue through the
period as well.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Another brief period of deep layer ridging is expected around
mid-week and should last until at least the end of the week when
our next frontal system moves into the Southeast. Dry, but warmer
conditions are expected through Friday. Rain chances return with
the frontal system over the weekend, though timing the front
remains very uncertain at this time.


Winds will prevail around 10 knots over the next several days,
with periodic afternoon upticks to around 15 knots. Seas will
continue subsiding and headline conditions are not expected.


Hazardous fire weather conditions are not forecast over the
next several days.


Rain is not expected until at least next weekend. Thus, flooding
will not be a concern this week.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   69  42  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   68  46  67  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        65  40  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Albany        66  42  64  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      67  42  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    69  46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  67  48  66  50  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 




SHORT TERM...Harrigan

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