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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
136 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Aviation...

[through 06z thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period.

&&

Previous discussion [809 PM edt]...

Near term [through tonight]...

Cold front will continue to move east across the remainder of
southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend during the next few
hours. Much cooler and drier air will usher in behind the
front tonight. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper
40s and low 50s as a result, which is actually around normal for
late October.



Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...

Pleasant weather will persist through Wednesday as the region
remains under quasi-zonal flow. Afternoon high temperatures will
run in the low 70s. The aforementioned cold front will start to
lift northward as a warm front on Thursday in response to a
shortwave trough diving out of the central rockies. As a result,
temperates will rise once again along with cloud cover and rain
chances, generally across the Florida Panhandle and southern
Alabama wiregrass.



Long term [friday through tuesday]...

Major differences continue between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) regarding
the next weather system. The European model (ecmwf) continues to cut off an
upper low over North Texas and lifts it to the NE of the area
while the GFS brings in a large scale trough to the region
with multiple lows moving in from the Gulf which would result
in more widespread rain beginning Thursday night and continuing
at least into Saturday. General model blends tend to favor
slower/more western solutions regarding pops, thus will continue
to favor these in the official forecast with this package. Friday
and Saturday look wet and active, while Sunday through early next
week generally look mostly dry. As mentioned previously, there
remains considerable uncertainty in the overall pattern, so
changes in the forecast are possible as we move through the week.
Increased cloudiness will yield average high temperatures (upper
70s to near 80) and warm overnight lows (low to mid 60s) across
the region through the period.



Marine...

Winds and seas will remain at cautionary levels through much of the
remainder of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Thursday into Friday. Scattered storms will remain
possible over the weekend.



Fire weather...

Drier air will be in place tomorrow but relative
humidity will remain above critical thresholds. No fire weather
concerns.



Hydrology...
dry Wednesday and Thursday with the next system on tap later this
week into the weekend. Rainfall amounts aren't overly impressive
with totals of an inch or less.



Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 74 52 78 66 83 / 0 0 10 20 30
Panama City 73 54 78 67 82 / 0 0 10 30 40
Dothan 71 49 76 63 78 / 0 0 10 30 40
Albany 72 50 76 64 79 / 0 0 10 30 30
Valdosta 73 53 77 66 82 / 0 0 10 10 30
Cross City 76 58 82 68 85 / 0 0 10 10 40
Apalachicola 73 58 77 69 80 / 0 0 10 30 40

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 3 am EDT /2 am CDT/ early this
morning for coastal Bay-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Near term...scholl
short term...scholl
long term...scholl

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