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000 
FXUS62 KTAE 211746
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1246 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF with increasing mid
and high level cloudiness through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1040 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure north of our area moves south and east today 
which will cause winds to veer from northeasterly to southeasterly. 
This should initiate a gradual warming trend today as Gulf 
maritime air moves onshore and inland. Highs are forecast to be in
the low 70s. Overall, another dry day with few clouds and light 
winds is expected.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will hold through Friday with no rainfall and
temperatures near to slightly above normal. An upstream trough
will move through the southern Plains accompanying a cold front
which will enter the CWA late Saturday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Instability is low and not
expecting severe weather at this time. Cold air advection will
hold off to the beginning of the long term.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The front moves through Saturday night with a period of dry
weather and cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. Another trough
moves across the central CONUS Tuesday supporting a low pressure
system. Warm air advection will drive temperatures back slightly
above normal for Tuesday with the next cold front on tap for
Wednesday with a chance for rainfall. Confidence is low that the
front moves through at this time; rather, the front stalls and
moves back northward as a warm front and our temperatures remain
slightly above normal.


.MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions featuring moderate easterly winds and
modest seas will continue through Friday night. A cold front will
approach the area Saturday with winds increasing to cautionary 
levels through early Sunday. Late weekend, winds will be moderate 
northwesterly with seas slowly decreasing.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Although dry weather is on tap through Friday, RH values will remain 
above critical thresholds. Therefore hazardous fire conditions are not 
expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

Two systems will affect the Tri-State region over the next week.
Generally, less than an inch of rainfall is expected. Therefore,
no flooding is anticipated.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   49  75  58  78  51 /   0  10  10  40  60 
Panama City   55  76  64  77  51 /   0   0  20  70  50 
Dothan        48  73  58  75  47 /   0   0  10  70  30 
Albany        49  73  57  76  48 /   0   0   0  60  60 
Valdosta      49  74  54  77  51 /   0   0   0  20  60 
Cross City    52  76  53  77  55 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Apalachicola  56  74  63  77  53 /   0  10  20  40  60 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST tonight for Coastal 
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG
SHORT TERM...Scholl

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