Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 240516
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
116 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019
[through 06z thursday]
With a stationary front draped across the forecast area, IFR-MVFR
cigs and vsbys should develop across the area. Vsbys should
improve around sunrise, but MVFR cigs may hang around near the
front (ecp, tlh, and vld) into the evening hours. Conditions could
be reduced further by storms directly affecting terminals, most
likely in the afternoon. Prevailing winds will be from the north
at less than 10 knots outside of thunderstorms and rain.
Previous discussion [1047 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
rain will continue across the region through the rest of the
afternoon and overnight but should clear across our southeast Alabama counties
by daybreak tomorrow. As of 18z most of the convective activity
was located across our southeast Alabama and Florida Panhandle counties. This
activity is expected to shift eastward as the front moves across
the region. Since the front will begin to slowdown and weaken, the
highest rainfall accumulations will occur roughly west of a line
between Panama City Beach and Valdosta. East of that line expect
widespread 12-hour rainfall accumulations of around 0.5 to 1.5
inches with localized accumulations up to approximately 3 inches.
This will bring potential impacts such as localized minor flooding
in low- lying and poor drainage areas.
With respect to severe weather: 0-1km shear (<10 kts), 0-6km bulk
shear (<20kts) and cape (1000-1500 j/kg) does not support any
organized activity. Although few storms could briefly show
significant vertical growth, severe weather at this time. The only
exception to this is our extreme northwest counties in SW Georgia which
have marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening.
By sunrise tomorrow, the front will begin to stall. Lingering low
level moisture and calm winds combined with dry upper levels could
lead to potential fog development in our central areas. This is also
reflected on ecam models. Meanwhile, the drier airmass behind the
front will nose its way into southeast Alabama by 12z bringing sub 70-dew points
in that area.
Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...
rather rare July front will continue to sag southward through
Wednesday as upper trough digs into the deep south. A
significantly drier airmass will push into the northwestern half
of the area on Wednesday, dropping dewpoints well into the 60s in
southeast Alabama and SW Georgia. This will also significantly lower rain
chances in this area. Along and southeast of the front, the very
moist airmass will remain in place with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
The boundary is expected to drop a bit further southeast on
Thursday, ushering the lower rain chances a bit further into the
forecast area. However, the southeastern Big Bend will likely
High temperatures through Thursday will stay in the 80s, either
due to increased cloud cover and rain, or the slightly drier and
cooler airmass northwest of the front. Low temperatures to the
north of the front will be quite pleasant, with mid to upper 60s
possible through Friday morning.
Long term [friday through tuesday]...
by Friday, the frontal boundary is expected to stall and possibly
begin sliding back to the north. There will also likely be a
series of weak waves moving northeastward along the boundary
through Friday. This exact placement and motion of these waves
will likely govern the distribution of rainfall across the area,
and which areas receive the heaviest rainfall. However, the
overall pattern of having the highest pops across the Florida
counties should continue.
By late in the weekend, the frontal will pretty much be washed
out, with rain chances returning back to typical summertime
levels. Temperatures will gradually warm as well, with high
temperatures returning to the lower 90s over the weekend.
southwesterly winds will increase slightly through Thursday to the
south of the approaching cold front. However, conditions should
remain below headline criteria. Thereafter, high pressure will
build back in with winds and seas diminishing.
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
a wet pattern will be in place through Saturday. Forecast
rainfall totals through Thursday night are 1 to 2 inches in most
locations. 2 to 4 inches is forecast through Thursday night in
Taylor, Lafayette and Dixie counties. Flash flooding is not
expected but ponding of water on roadways and flooding of low-
lying or poor drainage areas is possible. While river levels will
rise with the expected rainfall, levels are forecast to remain
below action stages.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 85 69 88 71 88 / 70 20 40 30 60
Panama City 87 72 87 73 85 / 50 20 30 30 50
Dothan 87 67 88 68 87 / 20 0 20 10 30
Albany 88 68 88 71 87 / 20 10 20 20 20
Valdosta 85 68 88 69 87 / 70 30 40 30 50
Cross City 84 71 84 71 86 / 80 70 70 60 70
Apalachicola 85 73 85 74 85 / 80 40 50 40 60