Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 191031
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
631 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
[through 12z friday]
Cigs around 3 to 5 k ft will scatter out by late this morning or
early afternoon. Easterly winds will be gusty today with gusts up
to 20 kt possible.
Previous discussion [324 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
In the upper levels a ridge is over the central and eastern U.S. At
the surface, high pressure is over the southeast with easterly
flow over the region. Pops will be very low today, less than 10
percent as dry air moves into the region. Skies will be mostly
sunny and temps will be lower today with highs in the mid to upper
Short term [tonight through Saturday night]...
An upper ridge will continue to build into the region tonight with
high pressure at the surface encompassing most of the eastern
Seaboard. Plenty of dry air will exist with subsidence inversions in
place through Saturday night with precipitable water values around and below 1 inch.
There's some lingering low level moisture around 850mb due to the
easterly flow. This will likely just lead to a few low topped clouds
each afternoon. With the backdoor cold front all the way through the
area, highs Friday and Saturday will cooler than previous days, in
the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the mid 60s to the north and
around 70 in the Florida Panhandle. Dew points will also be dropping into
the lower 60s so that will feel refreshing after the last few days.
We only have slight chance pops in the far northeast portion of our
SW Georgia counties as there could be some showers make into the area
Friday evening from the Atlantic coast sea breeze.
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
The upper ridge remains strong Sunday through at least Tuesday with
it then starting to flatten out. An upper trough will then push a
cold front south which will stall likely right at the northern edge
of our southeast Alabama and SW Georgia counties. There will be a few spots of slight
chance pops for Tue, Wed and Thu afternoons to account for this
boundary. A weak subsidence inversion still remains but it looks
like we'll get enough heating to possibly break the cap and precipitable water
values will be back near 2 inches. There is still plenty of dry air
aloft and the ridge still holding firm to our south so it's
uncertain if these pops will be realized or not. But before Tue, we
will remain dry.
Temps will start to warm again as the ridge builds with highs sun
back near 90 and slowly rise through the week with highs by Thu back
into the mid 90s. Lows will also warm back to the lower 70s.
East winds start to increase today to around 15 to 20 knots with
seas of 3 to 5 feet. By tonight, small craft conditions will
start over the offshore waters as well as the near shore waters
south of Keaton Beach. Winds of 20-25 knots with seas up to 8 feet
will be possible in the advisory locations. There will be a brief
lull on Friday but with conditions still likely Friday night,
will continue the advisory through 8am et Saturday morning. For
the rest of the near shore waters, winds may occasionally get to
20 knots with seas occasionally reaching 6 feet. Winds and seas
should start to subside on Saturday.
A drier air mass will be in place today but relative humidity will
stay above the critical threshold. Red flag conditions are not
expected. Winds will be gusty. High dispersions above 75 are likely
today and tomorrow.
Very little rain is expected through the next 7 days so there are
no flooding concerns.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 89 67 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 88 71 87 71 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 86 64 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 65 85 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 86 65 86 67 88 / 0 0 10 0 10
Cross City 87 68 87 70 89 / 10 10 10 0 10
Apalachicola 86 73 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8
am EDT /7 am CDT/ Saturday for coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach Florida out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Apalachicola to Mexico Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County line Florida from 20
to 60 nm.