Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 191124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
724 am EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
have included thunderstorms in the vicinity at all of the terminals between 20-01z for
some late afternoon widely scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain development,
otherwise VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Light
and variable winds early this morning will become west northwest
at 6 to 8 knots at the coastal sites after 19z as the sea breeze
develops, with light east winds expected after 01z tonight.
Prev discussion... /issued 311 am EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/
mid level ridging centered over the southern High Plains sprawls
to southwest Canada...weak troughiness stretches down the eastern
Seaboard...and ridging nudges into Florida from the Atlantic through
Tue night. At the surface a frontal trough along the northern Gulf
Coast and through northern FL eases northward as broad Atlantic
high pressure across south-central Florida to the Gulf lifts into
northern Florida Tue.
The week begins with a Flood Warning for much of Levy County and
northwest Citrus County due to widespread areal flooding. This
warning is in effect until this afternoon but will allow following
shifts to evaluate conditions through out the day. Otherwise today
transitions to a return of prevailing southeasterly flow that
continues Tue. This brings in slightly drier air (pwat drops to
1.8 to 2 inches) but still adequate...along with daytime
heating...for scattered to at times numerous showers and
thunderstorms. These will form up late morning/early afternoon
inland then congregate in the afternoon along the Gulf Coast where
sea breeze boundaries provide some additional lift. Temperatures
will run on the warm side of normal by 2-3 degrees.
Wed-Sun: Atlantic high pressure ridging west along 30 north
latitude to the central Gulf Coast provides a prevailing
southeast flow but with an onshore shift near the Gulf Coast in
the afternoons. There will be enough moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening
hours...favoring the Gulf Coast in the late afternoons.
Temperatures will be within normal by a degree or 2.
gentle to moderate winds generally from the southeast except
during afternoon seas breezes as relaxed high pressure dominates
the waters. Showers and thunderstorms will result in locally
higher winds and seas.
adequate moisture will preclude any low rh concerns and also
support scattered to at times numerous showers and storms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 92 78 92 76 / 40 30 60 60
fmy 93 76 91 74 / 30 20 60 60
gif 94 76 92 74 / 30 20 50 40
srq 92 76 92 75 / 30 40 60 60
bkv 92 73 92 74 / 30 20 50 50
spg 91 79 91 75 / 30 30 50 50