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fxus65 ktfx 091527 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
827 am MST Mon Dec 9 2019

this morning's update focused on the backdoor cold front tracking
through the hi-line today, bringing a quick shot of measurable
snow to parts of northcentral Montana through tonight. I ended up
increasing chances and amounts over Blaine, Hill, Chouteau, and
Fergus counties through tonight. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track through the weekend. -Tp



Slightly warmer, yet still below normal, temperatures will be
found today. Some snow showers are also possible today for
northern and central portions, especially from Havre to Lewistown
areas, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. Precipitation looks
to diminish late tonight, with mainly dry and continued warming
conditions expected for Tuesday.


updated 5 am MST Mon Dec 9 2019 (09/12z tafs)

VFR conditions, with some periods of MVFR, are generally expected
today, with some increased southwest winds for a few sites. These
winds may bring some areas of blowing snow at times, although
confidence was not high enough to include in any taf sites at this
time. Some low clouds may then return this afternoon and evening,
perhaps bringing some return of MVFR conditons. Snow showers will
also be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly from khvr to
klwt. With west southwest winds aloft increasing, some areas
could see low level wind shear at times. Patchy fog is also
possible at times during the forecast period, especially in the
kwys area. Anglin


Previous discussion...
/issued 440 am MST Mon Dec 9 2019/

Today through Wednesday night...northwest flow will push another
boundary across the region today bringing snow shower activity
along and behind this front, with slight warming and mainly dry
conditions ahead of the front. Currently this boundary looks to
set up from about Havre to Lewistown. This combined with a
favorable jet Max along could bring some impactful snow showers
especially this afternoon and evening to these areas. A building
ridge should then dissipate the affects of this boundary overnight
tonight. By early Tuesday morning new snow accumulations of
generally and inch or less will be found, except for areas that
get under persistent snow showers. Right now this more favorable
areas looks to be in Fergus County where 1 to 3 inches of snow is
possible. This could impact area roadways and may need to be
monitored for any winter highlights, although with some
uncertainty and the isolated nature will hold off for now. Weak
ridging will then move into the area for Tuesday bringing dry
conditions and warming temperatures back to near normal readings.
Ridge then breaks down on Wednesday and we see a shortwave move
through. This feature appears to have limited moisture and be
somewhat unorganized. As a result only scattered snow showers are
expected at this time with the best chances coming across the
mountains. Breezy winds ahead of this system could continue to
warm temperatures for Wednesday, and perhaps bring some areas of
blowing snow. Anglin

Thursday through Monday...much of the long term could then see
periods of unsettled weather, although will lack any large scale
organized storm systems. Thursday sees strengthening and moist
westerly flow across the area. The result will be one more day of
warming temperatures, with chances for snow mainly along and west
of The Divide. Breezy conditions will also be found on Thursday,
perhaps bringing some blowing of fresh snowfall. Friday through
the weekend then sees a cooling pattern as northwest flow opens
the door for weak disturbances to move through the region at times.
As mentioned before models only indicating scattered snow shower
activity at this point with no real large scale organized system
expected across the area, and placing the better chances in the
mountains. This northwest flow pattern may continue into early
next week, although does not appear to be as unsettled. Anglin


Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 29 18 35 25 / 10 10 0 10
ctb 26 13 31 19 / 10 0 0 10
hln 31 16 37 21 / 10 0 0 0
bzn 30 11 35 14 / 10 0 0 0
wey 26 8 26 12 / 0 10 10 10
dln 31 12 32 16 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 22 12 26 13 / 60 50 0 10
lwt 28 16 35 20 / 30 60 0 0


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...

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