Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 192029 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
329 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Discussion...
main forecast concern will be thunderstorm chances and heavy
rainfall potential through the weekend as remnants of "imelda"
lift northeast tonight into Friday, and a weak frontal boundary
pushes south into parts of the area by Sunday.

Presently, the remnant low is moving slowly north across East
Texas, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms pivoting
northwestward into western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma.
Aerial coverage should remain somewhat limited with a decreasing
trend later this evening, however given the tropical origin
rainfall rates will be quite high and some local heavy amounts
are likely. Expect precip coverage to increase late tonight and
especially Friday morning from the south as the tropical low
accelerates northeast. Axis of heaviest rain totals will remain
along and east of remnant low track, with heaviest amounts
focused across far southeast OK where drought conditions will
mitigate flooding threat. Clouds and precip will keep temperatures
noticeably cooler than we have see lately, but it will remain
quite humid.

Stronger southwest flow aloft will develop by Saturday with a
series of weak impulses maintaining at least some continues
threat of showers and storms Saturday, mainly across northeast OK.
Chances will increase with the arrival of a weak cold front
Sunday, again with greatest potential focused across northeast OK
and northwest AR, where locally heavy rain amounts again will be
possible.

Pattern becomes more uncertain next week with the frontal
boundary stalling and eventually washing out, plus model
differences in the evolution of an upper low in the southwest U.S.
Forecast will continue to follow the National blend of models and
keep at least low chances of precip each day with temperatures
remaining a little above normal, especially overnight lows as no
substantial airmass change is in sight. The only exception to this
will be Sunday night as lower dew points move into northern areas,
resulting in at least one cooler night for some.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 70 80 72 86 / 20 60 20 20
fsm 71 79 72 87 / 30 90 40 10
mlc 68 81 71 87 / 50 70 20 0
bvo 68 80 70 84 / 20 60 20 40
fyv 68 74 69 80 / 20 70 40 10
byv 68 76 69 82 / 20 80 30 10
mko 69 78 71 85 / 30 70 20 10
Mio 69 77 70 83 / 20 60 20 20
f10 68 80 71 86 / 30 60 20 10
hhw 68 86 70 88 / 80 90 30 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations