Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS65 KTWC 112150 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 250 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible along the International border this evening, otherwise dry conditions with rounds of high cirrus can be expected into next week. Cooler temperatures on Tuesday, then back to slightly above normal high temperatures into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Mid-level cloud deck draping southeast portion of the forecast area with a few sprinkles making it to the ground near/along the International border from Nogales east. South of the border there scattered light showers between Douglas and Cananea while further south there were a few thunderstorms NE of Hermosillo near the core of the closed upper low. Expect a few sprinkles/light showers into the evening hours across Santa Cruz county and the southern part of Cochise county. At the surface there is a back door cold front headed our way later tonight into Tuesday. This front moved through El Paso earlier this afternoon. Main initial impact later tonight into tomorrow morning will be increase southeasterly winds, where a few places could see gusts as high as 35 mph, and then much cooler temperatures tomorrow with areas east of Tucson seeing the biggest day-to-day change of 8 to 15 degrees cooler than today. Shortwave ridging over the area Wednesday and Thursday brings warmer temperatures. Confidence is low at this time with respects to the potential for precipitation next weekend as guidance is suggesting this will be an open progressive shortwave trof, which would only create breezy and cooler conditions. && .AVIATION...valid through 13/00Z. South of a KSAD to KTUS line thru 12/06Z, FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-10k ft MSL, SCT-BKN clouds 12k-15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL, along with a slight chance of -SHRA. North of a KSAD to KTUS line thru 12/06Z, FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-10k ft MSL. Aft 12/06Z, clearing skies from north to south and clear skies areawide aft 12/15Z. SFC wind variable in direction and less than 12 kts thru 12/03Z, then SFC wind becoming east-southeast at 10-20 kts with the strongest SFC wind in the vicinity of KTUS. Gusts approaching 30 kts possible at KTUS between 12/11z and 12/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...There will be a slight chance of light showers southeast of Tucson through the evening hours tonight, then dry weather is expected the rest of the work week and this weekend. Strong and gusty east-southeast winds will occur late tonight through Tuesday, however humidity levels will be high enough to avoid critical fire weather thresholds. Beyond that, 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph. Except for below normal temperatures across the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday, daytime high temperatures will be 1-5 degrees above normal the next 7 days. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.