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FXUS65 KTWC 112150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS... A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible
along the International border this evening, otherwise dry conditions
with rounds of high cirrus can be expected into next week. Cooler
temperatures on Tuesday, then back to slightly above normal high 
temperatures into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Mid-level cloud deck draping southeast portion of
the forecast area with a few sprinkles making it to the ground
near/along the International border from Nogales east. South of
the border there scattered light showers between Douglas and
Cananea while further south there were a few thunderstorms NE of 
Hermosillo near the core of the closed upper low. Expect a few
sprinkles/light showers into the evening hours across Santa Cruz
county and the southern part of Cochise county. At the surface
there is a back door cold front headed our way later tonight into
Tuesday. This front moved through El Paso earlier this afternoon.
Main initial impact later tonight into tomorrow morning will be 
increase southeasterly winds, where a few places could see gusts 
as high as 35 mph, and then much cooler temperatures tomorrow with
areas east of Tucson seeing the biggest day-to-day change of 8 to
15 degrees cooler than today.

Shortwave ridging over the area Wednesday and Thursday brings 
warmer temperatures. Confidence is low at this time with respects 
to the potential for precipitation next weekend as guidance is 
suggesting this will be an open progressive shortwave trof, which 
would only create breezy and cooler conditions.


.AVIATION...valid through 13/00Z.
South of a KSAD to KTUS line thru 12/06Z, FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-10k 
ft MSL, SCT-BKN clouds 12k-15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft 
MSL, along with a slight chance of -SHRA. North of a KSAD to KTUS 
line thru 12/06Z, FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-10k ft MSL. Aft 12/06Z, 
clearing skies from north to south and clear skies areawide aft 
12/15Z. SFC wind variable in direction and less than 12 kts thru 
12/03Z, then SFC wind becoming east-southeast at 10-20 kts with the 
strongest SFC wind in the vicinity of KTUS. Gusts approaching 30 kts 
possible at KTUS between 12/11z and 12/18Z. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments. 


.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a slight chance of light showers 
southeast of Tucson through the evening hours tonight, then dry 
weather is expected the rest of the work week and this weekend. 
Strong and gusty east-southeast winds will occur late tonight 
through Tuesday, however humidity levels will be high enough to 
avoid critical fire weather thresholds. Beyond that, 20-foot winds 
will generally be less than 15 mph. Except for below normal 
temperatures across the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday, 
daytime high temperatures will be 1-5 degrees above normal the next 
7 days.



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