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fxus63 kunr 122331 

Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
431 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Discussion...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 220 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

The surface trough/warm front has pushed eastward across the area
today and aside from a few stubborn holdouts, most locations are
reporting temperatures in the 40s this afternoon.

A weak upper ridge is crossing the area in northwesterly flow
aloft, which will be followed tonight by a shortwave trough which
is already producing some precipitation as it crosses Montana.
This system will bring some light precipitation to much of the
area late tonight through Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles
generally suggest a rain/snow mix, but there is some potential for
light freezing rain or ice pellets on parts of the South Dakota plains,
especially over south central South Dakota. Many areas may see a light
dusting of snow. A few inches of snow may accumulate in the
northern Black Hills, where a slight upslope component to the low
level winds will be in place. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in
the 30s to lower 40s with breezy northwesterly winds.

Mainly dry and slightly warmer temps are expected to round out
the work week. The next system will bring a chance of
precipitation to the area on Saturday, however temperatures are
expected to be warm enough for the precipitation to fall mainly as
rain. Relatively mild temperatures are expected Sunday into early
next week with slight chances of precipitation each day from
Sunday into Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 420 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. A cold front
will cross the area from the north tonight. Rain showers will
develop with the frontal passage, mixing with or changing to snow
late tonight into Wed morning. MVFR conditions will develop after
06z, then drop to IFR after 10z. Winds will switch to the
northwest behind the front, then become gusty after sunrise
Wednesday morning. Precip will end through the late morning and
early afternoon, but MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

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