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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
527 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Discussion...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Strong upper low continues to March across central Canada with a
series of shortwaves crossing Montana through the northern Great
Plains. A strong shortwave is pushing across the County Warning Area at this time,
with thunderstorms ahead of the wave crossing western to central
South Dakota. A cold front has pushed across much of the County Warning
pushing through kphp through The Badlands to near kien. Aside from
an isolated severe storm across the southern Black Hills, the
strongest storms have slid into central South Dakota east of the County Warning Area border
and this de-escalating trend is expected to continue through the
next few hours. A secondary shortwave is progged to cross the
northwest South Dakota area late this evening into the overnight hours. Can't
rule out a few showers late tonight, but most areas will remain dry.
Upper ridging will build into the western Continental U.S. Sunday, bringing
warmer and drier weather Sunday and Monday. Highs Monday are
expected to reach the upper 80s to upper 90s. Upper waves within the
weakening ridge are progged to cross the area Tuesday, bringing the
next chance for thunderstorms through midweek. The second half of
the week looks dry again with highs in the 80s.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Storms will continue to exit the forecast area through the evening
hours. MVFR ceilings are persisting across portions of northeast Wyoming
through the Black Hills area and adjacent plains in western South Dakota.
These lower ceilings are expected to push south into southwest South Dakota
through the late evening. Lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible
across the southern/eastern foothills as winds upslope. VFR
conditions are expected tomorrow morning through the rest of the
forecast period.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

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