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000 
FXUS65 KVEF 112344
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
345 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected
through the end of the week along with considerable cloudiness. The 
next weather system rolling out of the eastern Pacific could bring 
strong winds and increased shower chances to portions of the 
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert over the weekend. A cold air 
mass will filter in next week, returning temperatures back to 
slightly below normal. 
&&

.DISCUSSION...tonight through Friday.

The weather pattern over the next couple of days features westerly 
flow aloft resulting in periods of dense high clouds streaming 
across the area for the west, light winds overall with localized 10-
20 mph north winds near Bullhead City and Laughlin, and above normal 
temperatures.  

A weak shortwave is forecast to bring abundant high level moisture 
to much of the area Friday night and Saturday with precipitation 
chances increasing in the Sierra and far northern reaches of our 
forecast area. Any shower activity is expected to remain light with 
minimal precip accumulations. This initial shortwave is followed by 
a second, more vigorous wave that is forecast to move from northern 
California into our area Saturday night and Sunday. This one will 
pack more of a punch with strong gusts in the 40-50 mph range 
possible across the Sierra Crest beginning Friday night and across 
the Mojave Desert beginning Saturday morning. A cold front pushing 
south through the forecast area Sunday could bring strong northerly 
gusts with it. However, models this morning have decreased post 
frontal wind speeds which was ignored for the time being given it 
contradicts the increasing trend of the past few model runs. Will 
keep an eye on it for now. Temperatures on Saturday should continue 
to be above normal but then return to normal on Sunday.

As with previous model runs, the system is forecast to be well east 
of the area Monday but increasing surface pressure behind it will 
tighten gradients and result in a day of breezy to windy conditions 
along with cooler temperatures. 

The weather pattern is forecast to remain progressive with ridging 
over the area Tuesday being pushed east by the next upstream system. 
This next system could bring more clouds, wind, and another shot of 
precipitation. However, models are not in the best agreement and 
confidence is on the low end. 
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Minimal impacts expected at the McCarran 
terminal with diurnal wind patterns prevailing. Primarily broken 
cloud cover aoa 20k feet through the period. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Very little impacts expected for regional terminals 
over the next 24 hours. KIFP could see some minor north winds again 
Thursday morning through the afternoon. VFR to prevail throughout 
the period with primarily broken clouds aoa 15k feet.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

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