Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS65 KVEF 202058
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
158 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are 
likely through the weekend. Temperatures will max out the next few
days before dropping back a few degrees for the end of the week.
No significant increase in moisture is currently expected, though
some modest moisture does return for next week. &&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Monday.

A quiet and dry weather pattern will continue over the region
through next week. It will basically be a "rinse and repeat"
forecast through early next week, with a few days of hotter 
temperatures followed by a slight cool down and afternoon 
breezes. 

The next few days will feature hot temperatures and potential 
heat impacts as we sit under a building ridge. Guidance trends 
have been cooler through the period, likely due to the stronger 
trough swinging in from the Pacific NW than what was showing a 
few days ago. However, with clear skies and decent height rises, 
we should still see extreme temperatures. Temperatures will top 
out on Wednesday before slowly cooling off to around normal by 
Friday. Continued with the excessive heat warning with no changes.
Thursday will be borderline with the updated temperature forecast
as well as the new potential for a cirrus deck over portions of 
the southern Great Basin, however high temperatures should still 
run about 5 degrees above normal even with these factors.

A quiet and dry weekend is expected with near normal temperatures.
After Sunday, the mean flow does turn more southerly. Long range 
models do show a moisture increase through southern Arizona and up
the Colorado Rover Valley, however it will be a modest increase 
at best. Without much forcing, it will be hard to get showers and 
thunderstorms. Will continue to watch and wait to see if monsoon 
season decides to reappear anytime soon. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will 
continue through the week. Minimum humidities will likely continue 
to drop into the single digits in the afternoons with poor recovery 
overnight. There will be a shallow increase in low level moisture 
into southeast California and southern Mohave County Friday and 
beyond leading to better humidity recovery. 
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Very little change in the weather pattern 
will provide a clear sky and typical daily wind cycles with south-
southwest components late this afternoon through the overnight 
hours. Easterly winds developing late Wednesday morning should be a 
little more enhanced than today with speeds around 10 knots after 
18Z. East-southeast components could persist into early Wednesday 
evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Very little change in the weather pattern will provide 
a clear sky and typical daily wind cycles with sustained speeds 
generally less than 15 knots at all TAF sites.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolf
AVIATION...Adair

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations