Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kvef 202118
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
218 PM PDT sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis...dry and seasonal weather is expected to continue
through the work week with periods of breezy north winds.
Temperatures will climb Monday through Wednesday before cooling to
near normal for the later half of the week. &&
Discussion...today through next weekend.
Dry, northwest flow will help reinforce northerly winds through
this afternoon across the region. Northerly winds have been
trending downward across much of southern Nevada through this
afternoon as the shortwave centered in eastern Colorado continues to
shift east - allowing gradients to relax a bit. Though, continued
breeziness exists down the Colorado River valley, where
topographic funneling has allowed sustained winds to peak to
25-28 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph. Over the next few hours winds
are expected to decrease down the River Valley, with the lake
Wind Advisory on track to expire at 5pm this evening.
Northwest flow is expected to remain through much of the work week
as a high-amplitude ridge remains just off the West Coast. This
pattern will allow for temperatures to gradually warm through mid
week. By Thursday, a more amplified pattern will allow a shortwave
to slide down the front of the ridge and into The Four Corners
region. This will primarily bring another round of cool north winds
to the region - similar to today's pattern. As of now, how far
the shortwave will dig by midweek is still unclear, so low
confidence on the how strong the winds will be associated with it.
As the shortwave quickly moves eastward through the day Thursday,
the high-amplitude ridge off the coast will begin to shift east
as well, and is expected to be overhead by Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm a tad, but the ridge is expected to be
brief as another potentially potent trough digs into the
southwest by early next week. &&
Aviation...for McCarran...northeast to east direction with speeds
10 kts or less expected until early evening. A brief period of light
and variable winds expected early this evening before the typical
down valley wind develops overnight. Another period of light and
variable winds likely Monday morning before the wind shifts from the
northeast wind speeds 8 kts or less Monday afternoon. No
operationally significant clouds during the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, southwest Arizona and southeast
California...north winds will decrease overnight within the Colorado
River valley, only to increase once again Monday morning and
afternoon with gusts 20-25 kts possible at kifp and keed. Similar
north wind gusts can be expected within the the Owens Valley at kbih
as well Monday. There will be less influence from the northerly
winds across the western Mojave Desert around kdag through Monday.
No operationally significant clouds during the period.
Spotter information statement...spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to Standard operating