Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kvef 171002 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
302 am PDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Synopsis...expect dry and breezy conditions with temperatures
close to seasonal normals through the rest of the week. Increasing
monsoonal moisture is expected late in the weekend or early next

Discussion...through next Tuesday.

Satellite imagery shows a large thunderstorm complex over
northcentral Mexico this morning. Models bring moisture associated
with this feature westward into Sonora Mexico and the central Gulf
of California today. 400 mb streamline analysis shows westerly
component winds hanging tough across our area, keeping the
moisture suppressed to well south and east of our southern County Warning Area
borders. Southwest flow aloft is forecast to weaken over our
region today however surface winds are forecast to be similar to
slightly weaker than yesterday. Temperatures are expected to be a
few degrees cooler this afternoon...back closer to normal. Similar
conditions are expected to continue through the weekend with
seasonal temperatures, dry conditions and gusty afternoon winds.

Early next week, the pattern shifts to more of a monsoonal look
as high pressure expanding and strengthening across the
intermountain range with the center near The Four Corners region.
This will turn the upper level flow to the south/southeast
direction...becoming more favorable for increasing moisture
into parts of our area and increasing chances for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Aviation...for McCarran...southwest winds will continue today
with winds increasing to 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots by
late morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...southwest winds will increase late this morning
becoming 15-20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Gusty
conditions will continue into the early evening before decreasing

Fire weather...dry, southwest flow is expected to continue
through the week. Winds will increase late this morning with
gusts generally 25-35 mph through early evening. The strongest
winds will be focused across mainly Mohave and far southern
Nevada where a red flag warning is in effect through this
evening. Breezy southwest winds and critical relative humidity values will continue
each afternoon through the end of the week with gusts generally
in the 20 to 25 mph range.

Spotter information statement...spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to Standard operating


Discussion/fire weather/aviation...Salmen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations