marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EST sun Dec 17 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low over southeastern Louisiana near 31n91w to 26n93w where it becomes a stationary front to just S of Tampico Mexico. A warm front extends from the low east-southeastward to along the western Florida Panhandle coast to just se of Apalachicola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over much of southeastern Louisiana ahead of the front and extending into the far northern Gulf waters N of 29n within about 60 nm E of the cold front. The western periphery of western Atlantic high pres stretches southwestward to the eastern Gulf. The gradient between the high pres and the cold front is bringing moderate to fresh se to S winds over the northern and central portions of the eastern and central Gulf. Buoys and platforms over the NW Gulf indicate NW-N light to moderate winds behind the front, with seas of 3-5 ft. Seas elsewhere are similar, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft over the far se portion and Straits of Florida.
The warm front will lift N of the area this afternoon while the cold front stalls and transitions to a frontal trough. The trough will then lift northwestward tonight to inland Texas early on Monday. Generally, light NE winds can be expected W of the trough. Once the trough moves onshore, mainly moderate se flow will dominate the Gulf basin through early next week. High pres will settle in over the area tonight through Monday night, then slide eastward to the eastern Gulf Tuesday night through Thursday as a weak cold front moves across the northern waters and to E of the Gulf on Thursday. Moderate to fresh SW winds can be expected ahead of the front, while gentle to moderate northerly will follow in behind it.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
High pressure to the N of the basin will remain sufficiently strong to support a tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean through Tuesday, capable of producing nocturnal gale force NE winds within 60-90 nm of the of NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are expected elsewhere over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through this time frame. The high pressure will weaken Tuesday through Wednesday which will diminish winds by about 3-5 kt over the central Caribbean, likely keeping winds just below gale force N of NW Colombia Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday nights. The stronger winds early this week will be supporting seas to 15 ft during the mornings through Tuesday morning, with a large area of 8-12 ft extending across the central and SW Caribbean during that time. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, mainly moderate to locally fresh E to NE can be expected the next several days with generally dry conditions.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
A stationary front extending from 28n65w to 25n73w and to the central Bahamas will dissipate overnight tonight into Monday morning. High pressure in the wake of the front will become centered just to the E of central Florida near 28n76w for Monday and Tuesday. This pattern will support gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft N of 26n, with moderate to fresh NE winds S of 26n, with seas of 5-7 ft outside of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected between the se Bahamas Hispaniola through late Tuesday night.
The high will weaken and shift se Tuesday night, becoming centered east of the Bahamas near 25n70w for Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for fairly benign marine conditions across the waters S of 31n and N of 23n during this time frame. The only exception will be the potential of a cold front to clip the waters N of 30n, which could increase winds later this week. S of 23n, the periphery of the high will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds Wednesday through Thursday. Mainly fresh NE-E winds are expected near the approaches to the Windward Passage Wednesday through Friday.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... .Amz031...Caribbean from 11n to 15n between 72w and 80w including Colombia basin... Gale Warning tonight into Mon night.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.