marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1216 PM PST sun Dec 17 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
12z global models in good agreement through the forecast period. Will lean towards the 12z GFS for the wind grids through the period, which has good support from both the ECMWF and the UKMET.
Cold front currently moving into the northern pz5 waters tonight is expected to stall near the middle of the zone later tonight into Mon. Models then continue to develop a low along the front and intensify it as it moves northeast along the front over the pz5 waters Mon night into Tue. Models in good agreement with southerly gales developing ahead of the front on Tue, with highest winds expected along the coast as the low continues to intensfy and the front begins to pinch along the coast. Will Max winds out at 40 kt in the offshore waters, with higher winds possible along the coast. Models showing another strong low developing near Vancouver Island late Tue and moving southeast along the coast Tue night into Wed. With this system moving in more unstable air in the cold air advection behind the front, will be leaning towards the higher first sigma level winds from the GFS. Max winds is expected to be around 40 kt with higher gusts. Conditions should begin to diminsh late Wed and Wed night as low weakens inland and high pressure builds towards the region.
High pressure will dominate for most of the extended portion of the forecast. Models in good agreement with a low pressure trough to intensify along the Oregon coast Fri and Fri night. Will limit winds to 30 kt in the forecast for now.
.Seas...Enp within a foot or two of current observations. Will lean towards enp values for this package.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Wednesday. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster achorn. Ocean prediction center.