marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1220 PM PST Tue Nov 20 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
A cold front currently approaching the pz5 and northern pz6 waters will move into the area today while low pressure forms along the front. The low will then move north across the pz5 waters tonight and should be strong enough to produce some minimal gale conditions. Another cold front will then approach the pz5 waters Wednesday and move into the area early Thursday. Gale conditions are still expected ahead of the front across the pz5 and northern pz6 waters Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through late Thursday.
By Thursday night the GFS moves a low pressure wave across the southern pz5 waters while the ECMWF is slower with the wave. The latest UKMET is in better agreement with the ECMWF so for now will lean more towards the slower ECMWF solution. Another cold front will move across the pz5 waters Saturday night followed by yet another front Monday and Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with the timing of these fronts. For wind grids will use the GFS winds through late Thursday, then transition to the ECMWF winds. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.
For wave height grids will also use the wavewatch through late Thursday, then transition to the ECMWF wam.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The 12z estofs and etss guidance show positive surge values to 1 ft or so extending along the Washington and northern Oregon coast on Thu. With the models coming into better agreement on the strong frontal system described above, these values appear reasonable based on our latest wind forecast.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Wednesday. Gale Thursday. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale Wednesday night. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. Gale Thursday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. Gale Wednesday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale tonight. Gale Thursday. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Thursday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale tonight. Gale Thursday. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Thursday.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Thursday. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Thursday. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday.
.Forecaster nolt. Ocean prediction center.