marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 236 am PDT Wed Mar 21 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Low pressure to the west of the southern waters will continue to move northeast and pass through the central waters and force winds to be elevated. NCEP surface weather map at 06z has a weak cold front moving east across the northern waters while complex low pressure to the west of the region has main center 995 mb near 34n135w and a secondary center 1005 mb over the western edge of the outer northern California waters and extends a front into the central waters. Weak high pressure over the southern coast of California has a ridge into the far southern waters. Another low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska 1004 mb with gale force winds will be moving south toward the waters and models indicate that it will affect the seas over the northern waters in the short term.
There is a band of energy that stretches northeast from upper level cut off low west of the region. Associated surface low pressure system will follow this path as it moves cross the region. More energy will drop from the north and combine with that from the south and that will force a tight pressure gradient over the nort waters and froce winds to be elevated.
Models GFS/ecmwfhr/ukmethr/CMC/NOGAPS have initialized the 00z surface observations fairly well. Models have come to a better agreement in the short term on letting low pressure to move across the central waters with small variations still on wind speed. Will go with GFS.
.Seas...Seas are relatively large with a peak at 10 ft over the southern waters and they range between 5 and 7 ft in most areas. Nww3 and ecmwfwave models indicate that seas will continue to build over the central waters before they start over the northern waters. Will stay with nww3 for seas.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz810...inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Saturday. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Saturday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Saturday. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Friday night into Saturday.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale tonight. Gale possible Friday night into Saturday night. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale tonight. Gale possible Friday into Saturday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale tonight. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale tonight. Gale possible Saturday. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale tonight.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.