Tropical Update - Atlantic is quiet; Eastern Pacific Heating Up - July 5, 2012
Good afternoon everybody! Here is my Tropical Update for Thursday, July 5th.
Tropical Storm Daniel
Figure 1: Afternoon visible satellite of Daniel
8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 5
Location: 14.2°N 110.5°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
The only tropical cyclone in the world right now is Tropical Storm Daniel. Daniel formed yesterday, but didn't do much strengthening until early this morning. Although the current advisory says Daniel is a weak 45mph tropical storm, satellite presentation shows that Daniel is likely much stronger than what the advisory states. Daniel's center is under a central dense overcast (CDO) and there are spiral bands present around him.
Daniel will not be a threat to Mexico and will continue a WNW movement because of the high over CONUS, which is causing the major heat wave. Strengthening will continue for the next 48 hours until Daniel enters a much more stable environment. When that happens, he should start to gradually weaken, becoming a depression within 120 hours. Until then, I do expect Daniel to become a hurricane and peak out as a high end category 1 hurricane.
There is a tropical wave in the NE Caribbean, but high wind shear will keep it from developing. Other than that all is quiet in the Atlantic. It's currently in a downward MJO pulse and we shouldn't expect much in the way of development until the second half of July.
Back to the East Pacific, there's an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms off the Central American coast. The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours. Due to the disorganized and elongated nature of this disturbance development should be slow, but I do expect it will eventually become Emilia. It will not be a threat to land.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 48 hours.