Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Volcanic Winter

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).

Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.

Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).

Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change Volcano

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1451 - 1501

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 — Blog Index

1451. TampaSpin 7:46 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
I started a forum on the Swine Flu on my WebSite with a Link to Follow the Progress. http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/apps/forums/show/1078149-tampaspin-s-forums Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1452. kmanislander 7:47 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe: If I recall, you had some very good observations as to the preveiling trade winds down there last year and the impact on h-season formation....Any idea how they are looking for the Caribbean this year so far? Too early to say just yet but one thing we have seen here since late last year and continuing is anomolously high winds from the NE driven in large part by high pressure systems setting up off the E coast of the US. The last few days in particular has had winds around 25 knots from the NE and if you look at the TCHP and SST maps of the Caribbean this has led to some cooling of the water in this area. The SST has been bouncing up and down in the NW Caribbean for several weeks now due either to passage of late season fronts or strong NE winds. I did comment about a week ago that years with late season fronts have, at times in the past, also shown some correlation to an active season that followed. I don't recall a year recently that has had so strong a NE wind fetch so deep into the New Year. Whether this means anything or not remains to be seen but if it continues it will likely keep SST down for longer than usual which could reduce the intensity factor of anything forming early in the Caribbean around June or July. Another possibility is that if the highs continue to park off the E coast then the steering would favour sending systems further S and W through the Caribbean and into either the GOM or Western Caribbean, similar to years such as 2004, 2007 and 2008. Lots to watch for. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1453. TampaSpin 7:48 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting vortfix: States may be closing State lines soon if this gets out of hand as it appears. What??? Come on Tampa...let the media sensationalise this all by themselves please. For your info. I found that on a News Wire. OK! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1454. hurristat 7:52 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
I do think people are overreacting... This is lol Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1455. CybrTeddy 7:55 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Jesus, Earthquakes, Flu epidemics, War, Recession/Depression, what else can go wrong? Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20203

1456. CaneWarning 7:57 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
CyberTeddy, an early start to hurricane season? Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1457. Drakoen 7:57 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
GFS still has trouble pulling up that long-range system into a reasonable time frame. Some of it looks QPF bomb-induced. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1458. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:02 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Jesus, Earthquakes, Flu epidemics, War, Recession/Depression, what else can go wrong? a cat 3 in nw carb Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40431

1459. NEwxguy 8:05 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: For your info. I found that on a News Wire. OK! Two cases of the flu have been diagnosed here in massachusetts today Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13074

1460. CaneWarning 8:07 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: Two cases of the flu have been diagnosed here in massachusetts today Really? I haven't seen Mass. show up on the news coverage yet. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1461. kmanislander 8:08 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: GFS still has trouble pulling up that long-range system into a reasonable time frame. Some of it looks QPF bomb-induced. Hi Drak I was noticing that the disturbed weather from which the long range system is supposed to spin up is showing up in the next Tuesday time frame off the E coast of Nicaragua. I would like to see some persistence in that as well. Each run seems to push back key formation and development milestones. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1462. Ossqss 8:09 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
If WHO alters their current threat level to 4, all things will change. That will probably occur tomorrow if at all. That will alter all of our lives considerably and what has been presented above could occur. It appears that our vaccination policies may be at the root of the mild nature of this on US citizens (mostly children in the US). We have built up our immunity by exposure to other virus's through vaccination. They have not conveyed that yet in the media. They don't vaccinate in Mexico to any great degree and treat illness differently. Hence, why the deaths of so many young adults. Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1464. NEwxguy 8:10 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning: Really? I haven't seen Mass. show up on the news coverage yet. they had just broken in to tv reports about 15 min ago. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13074

1465. Drakoen 8:12 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting kmanislander: Hi Drak I was noticing that the disturbed weather from which the long range system is supposed to spin up is showing up in the next Tuesday time frame off the E coast of Nicaragua. I would like to see some persistence in that as well. Each run seems to push back key formation and development milestones. What I don't get is how a low pressure system is able to sustain such convection over water when the LLC is overland. I'm not really buying it though i'm sure the MJO pulse and somewhat favorable upper level winds may be able to support a system in the Caribbean. This reminds me of last year when the system ends up in the EPAC. Also not dissimilar to Paloma's formation origins. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1466. Ossqss 8:12 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
You should expect all of the states to be impacted. It is inevitable. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1468. TampaSpin 8:20 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Amazing people are getting sick and are dying and Jokes are displayed! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1470. presslord 8:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Jesus, Earthquakes, Flu epidemics, War, Recession/Depression, what else can go wrong? NEVER ask that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1471. Ossqss 8:22 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
WHO threat levels explained. One of the things that the experts are most concerned about is the impact of this strain on next years Flu season. They still don't understand fully the actual incubation period yet. A vaccine will take more than 3-4 months to produce. Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1472. Patrap 8:24 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Jesus, Earthquakes, Flu epidemics, War, Recession/Depression, what else can go wrong? Quoting presslord: NEVER ask that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's a fact press... Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1474. NEwxguy 8:31 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Further reports here in Mass. suspected flu cases,it hasn't been confirmed yet of the strain of flu. The problem is everytime someone gets sick,swine flu will be suspected. Creates mass hysteria. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13074

1475. TampaSpin 8:32 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
28 confirmed 17 more now probable in Queens NY....All in one school! Thats noboby i know.....but, that is a rapid spreading virus! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1476. charlottefl 8:34 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Just got a local news report an 18 acre brush fire jumped containment lines and is growing rapidly. Humidity is 34% and winds are gusting to 20-30mph. Hope they can get it under control. 1 Word: RAIN. Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1477. TampaSpin 8:36 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting vortfix: Amazing people are getting sick and are dying and Jokes are displayed! It was just some light-hearted humor. But I do agree with you...this is a serious situation if it gets out of control. Raise your hand please if you personally know of someone that has recently been diagnosed with the current version of Swine Flu. Vortfix How do you stop something that has now cure. It continues to spread. This will be very serious in 1-2 Weeks if not sooner. Very serious problem coming IMO! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1478. CaneWarning 8:36 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting charlottefl: Just got a local news report an 18 acre brush fire jumped containment lines and is growing rapidly. Humidity is 34% and winds are gusting to 20-30mph. Hope they can get it under control. 1 Word: RAIN. Are you speaking of the fire in Miami-Dade County or is this another one? Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1479. homelesswanderer 8:36 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: Further reports here in Mass. suspected flu cases,it hasn't been confirmed yet of the strain of flu. The problem is everytime someone gets sick,swine flu will be suspected. Creates mass hysteria. Yes I agree. They said on the news last night people were already demanding their doctors give them Tamiflu. Hopefully they wont hand that out like candy or the virus will mutate and then it will be resistant to that. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1480. Ossqss 8:38 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
I did some diggin on the Bio-terrorism front and this would not qualify and probably will not unless they ID it was manufactured. There is much worse stuff out there than this. It was scary what was happening years ago with Ebola and Small pox variants and the like being weaponized. Note that this country is much better prepared with stockpiles of many assets, including Tamiflu, available for rapid deployment than it was a few years ago. I keep looking at my can of Lysol and wondering what the other .01% is that it does not kill?? Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:40 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
its proably air borne and with spring in full force and warmer temps moving further north and everything starting to awaken from the winter sleep it is likly to spread very fast Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40431

1483. kmanislander 8:41 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
1465. Drakoen 8:12 PM GMT on April 27, 2009 I recall at least 2 instances where TDs spun up over land, odd as that is. One formed over the Yucatan and another, ironically, over Nicaragua and then came N. There is also the shear forecast to take into account with low shear being forecasted at the same time. Typically shear values tend to be high at that time of year in the Caribbean, particularly N of 15 ,so how it would get all the way to Fla. is another mystery ! Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1485. CaneWarning 8:42 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting Vortex95: 1478. No its one near what his name suggests Char, Fla. I didn't even realize there was a fire in that area. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1488. charlottefl 8:46 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Yeah Babcock Ranch, it's a huge wildlife preserve just SE of Port Charlotte or N of Ft. Myers. It went from 18 acres at 4:00 to now almost 100. Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1489. Ossqss 8:49 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
There is no vaccine. It has been stated they would need 3-4 or 5 months to develope it. The prior for swine flu is ineffective on this variant. It is public info. Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1490. txalwaysprepared 8:51 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting vortfix: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1105 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS. Not sure how much more we can take around here. Rain has been relentless. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1491. kmanislander 8:51 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Remember SARS ?. Everyone thought that was the new universal plague. Many of the health challenges today are the result of overcrowded cities, rapidly rising population centers, poor sanitation in many third world countries and the global village created by air travel since the 1950s. It will only get worse, each year or so having some new doomsday health problem to worry about. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1492. charlottefl 8:52 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1493. RMM34667 8:54 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Vortfix How do you stop something that has now cure. It continues to spread. This will be very serious in 1-2 Weeks if not sooner. Very serious problem coming IMO! Even if it seems to level off or decline now. The real problem could be next fall when the seasonal flu picks up. At least that is what happened in 1918.. ....a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps...... The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died... Link Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

1495. natrwalkn 8:56 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting Patrap: Quoting CybrTeddy: Jesus, Earthquakes, Flu epidemics, War, Recession/Depression, what else can go wrong? That's a fact press... Don't they say that bad things happen in three's, or something like that? Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1499. kmanislander 9:00 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting Vortex95: Containing the virus is the most important thing right now. Btw any word if hospitilization helps or it does not matter atm? Hopefully this goes away like SARS did. That was one ppl feared. The word from some high official on TV this morning was that if you suspect you have the flu and would have gone to the hospital anyway then go. If you would not have gone to the hospital under normal circumstances then don't go !!. I am still working that one out LOL Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1501. txalwaysprepared 9:02 PM GMT on April 27, 2009
Quoting vortfix: Yes, I hear ya! Y'all have had a lot of rain since last week and there are flood watches/warnings posted for a huge area around Houston. I wish you the best of luck tonight and tomorrow. My poor in-laws have already lost one car, and had their houses flooded 1 week ago. Hoping it doesn't repeat soon. I guess we wait and see... like everything else. I really feel sorry for my all my neighbors who are still trying to fix their homes after Ike and now have to deal with their homes flooding. :( Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

Viewing: 1451 - 1501

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters