Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Volcanic Winter

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).

Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.

Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).

Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change Volcano

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1751 - 1801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 — Blog Index

1751. CatastrophicDL 5:29 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Good evening everyone! Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

1752. CatastrophicDL 5:38 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Well darn, I finally get time to get online tonight and everyone is gone! :o( Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

1753. HadesGodWyvern 9:00 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin High Seas (Gale Warnings) TROPICAL LOW, EX-KIRRILY 4:30 PM CST April 28 2009 =============================== At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low, Ex-Kirrily (1002 hPa) located at 5.8S 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS AREA AFFECTED ================ Within 60 nautical miles of the center. Maximum winds of 30 knots near the center possibly increasing to 35 knots. Forecast and Intensity ======================= 12 HRS: 5.7S 132.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1) 24 HRS: 5.8S 131.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1) 48 HRS: 7.0S 130.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1) 72 HRS: 8.6S 129.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW) Additional Information ======================== TC Kirrily has weakened into a tropical low. Latest position fix is based on exposed LLCC evident in MTSAT VIS images. Convective structure has continued to weaken during the past 6 hours under moderate northeasterly wind shear. Curved peripheral cloud bands persist in the southwestern sector. Dvorak DT 2.5 based on shear pattern with an exposed LLCC near the edge of deep cold cloud. MET=PAT=2.5 and FT=2.5 based on a downward reassessment of the 0000UTC analysis. The system has moved slowly northwest under the influence of a strengthening low-level ridge to the SW. Mid-level steering is weak, with a short wave trough passing to the southeast and another forecast to develop over Western Australia within 48 hours. The consensus of model track forecasts indicates a west then southwest track, if the system retains a deep circulation. Dry air to the north and west of the system centre is forecast to moisten during the forecast period and with southwest movement, the system may move into an area of reduced vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast indicates possible strengthening to TC intensity early Wednesday as the low moves away from the influence of islands and towards a slightly more favourable environment. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684

1754. Cavin Rawlins 9:02 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
The GFS is now within 1 week. The chart below summarizes the ability of the GFS and other models to develop tropical and extratropical cyclones. As you may see the area lacks model support except for a region of 850 mb vorticity on the 00Z EMCWF, but that maybe climatologically related. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1755. KoritheMan 9:10 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Weather456: the area lacks model support except for a region of 850 mb vorticity on the 00Z EMCWF, but that maybe climatologically related.> Climatological or not, that feature wasn't there before, to my knowledge. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

1756. HadesGodWyvern 9:21 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 28APR) ============================================ An area of convection (94W) located at 15.6N 123.6E or 125 NM east-northeast of Puerto Real, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral animation shows deep convective flaring associated with a tightly formed mid-level circulation center. A 2128z Quikscat Pass shows a strong shear line at the surface but an ambiguity analysis indicates covergent flow with limited cyclonic turning near the center. A 2313z SSMIS image shows weak convergent banding leading into deep convection near the center. Upper level analysis shows the system is located underneath the upper level ridge axis in an area of low vertical wind shear. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO POOR. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684

1757. Cavin Rawlins 9:25 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting KoritheMan: Climatological or not, that feature wasn't there before, to my knowledge. I know but the ECMWF and most other models normally have an area of quasi-stationary 850 vort over the SW Caribbean and this is because of the flow around the Colombian Low which is a climatological feature for that region. But I could not tell whether it was a tropical cyclone or the low on the ECMWF because it was seen on the last frame so no movement could have been tracked. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1758. Cavin Rawlins 10:58 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
6Z GFS and one thing if notice is that it always develops the area on 4 May. Models with inconsistency tend to develop a tropical cyclone at a different time for each model run. With the GFS for each successive run, it develops the area on 4 May. Only if this consistency continues throughout the week we can be become alarm, otherwise, nothing really. I want to believe this is EPAC development tho. 06Z Apr 28 00Z April 28 18Z Apr 27 12Z Apr 27 06Z Apr 27 Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1759. CybrTeddy 11:03 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Weather456: 6Z GFS and one thing if notice is that it always develops the area on 4 May. Models with inconsistency tends to develop a tropical cyclone at a different time for each model run. With the GFS for each successive run, it develops the area on 4 May. Only if this consistency continues throughout the week we can be become alarm, otherwise, nothing really. 06Z Apr 28 00Z April 28 18Z Apr 27 12Z Apr 27 06Z Apr 27 Almost to the point of annoyance. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20195

1760. IKE 11:04 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
6Z GFS at 216 hrs..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1761. IKE 11:06 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
GFS has been too consistent to write it off. I follow that model quite a bit in the winter time. My opinion...it's definitely worth following. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1762. keyzdazeez 11:07 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
what is that little mess there on the east side of mexico in that 6z gfs looks like something going on there to Member Since: April 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

1763. Cavin Rawlins 11:20 AM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting keyzdazeez: what is that little mess there on the east side of mexico in that 6z gfs looks like something going on there to Yeah I notice it too but I wouldnt jump on it too soon. The GFS aslo develop an area east of islands on a recent run but dropped it soon thereafter. Not as persistent as the one in the SW Carib Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1764. stoormfury 1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
morning wide spread street flooding is now taking place in metro houston and surrounding areas. around 8-10 inches of rain have fallen in the area. schools have been closed and commute is very harzardous Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302

1765. TXGulfCoast 1:09 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
We're good this morning on the SE side of Houston. Until more rain hits this evening..... But it does seem awfully empty here at work. Maybe I missed the memo? Member Since: April 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

1766. Orcasystems 1:22 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Blog Refresh Mirror Site Daily Area of Interest Click to enlarge Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1767. TampaSpin 1:55 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Morning all! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1768. fireflymom 2:10 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Roads were dry this morning but the ditches were brim full on the far SW side of Houston (FT. Bend area). From drought to bounty a bit too fast. Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 501

1769. TampaSpin 2:11 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Until i see at least 2 out 4 of the major models show something. I would not be concerned. Only the GFS is showing something. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1771. presslord 2:36 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Attention all hands!!!!!! The video camera is up and running at the Portlight blog....SJ is making his way to the Grand Strand fire zone... please note that our efforts are focused on the rural volunteer firefighters who don't have federal, state, and local financial resources...as well as locals outside of the Barefoot resort area...including a community of 13 mobile homes which were destroyed.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1772. presslord 2:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
and, as a side note which justifies our mission of serving the unserved, under served and forgotten people...a ton of informationn is available to us regarding the impact at Barefoot...virtually none is available regarding the less well heeled victims...so SJ will be doing some needs assessment... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1773. TampaSpin 2:46 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
1770. vortfix 10:15 AM EDT on April 28, 2009 It looks like more rain coming.......Training The Corpus Cristi area has the highest CAPE values at 2423! North of there and northward along the Coast will be a greatest risk currently. Later today the NW corner of Texas will be under the Gun and spread Eastward. Some of this could again be very strong storms. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1774. stillwaiting 2:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Weather456: 6Z GFS and one thing if notice is that it always develops the area on 4 May. Models with inconsistency tend to develop a tropical cyclone at a different time for each model run. With the GFS for each successive run, it develops the area on 4 May. Only if this consistency continues throughout the week we can be become alarm, otherwise, nothing really. I want to believe this is EPAC development tho. 06Z Apr 28 00Z April 28 18Z Apr 27 12Z Apr 27 06Z Apr 27 as I stated 4 days ago...cinco de mayo is when we should begin to have something to watch in ernest in the SW carib or western gom.....(tropically).... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1775. Tazmanian 2:55 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
hmmmm where is dr m with his new blog??? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111320

1776. CatastrophicDL 3:15 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Good morning everyone! Press good to see you this year! I'll be sending you an email within the next couple of weeks to see if my son might be able to do his Eagle Scout project in conjunction with Portlight. Just wanted to give you a heads up. Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

1777. NEwxguy 3:18 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
GM all,summer time here in the northeast again today Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069

1778. stillwaiting 3:34 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
NEwx:getting kinda hott kinda early up there this year???,lol,I grew up in Ledyard,CT I don't remember it getting that hot back then,I lived their for 14yrs.....94 for a high in boston metro!!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1779. stillwaiting 3:37 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
our high here today in sarasota is ONLY 87!!!!!,the thing is you'll be cooling off in the next few days,we have to wait until next october!!!!!......how many days until TC season,again????,38......37....36..........lol Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1780. AussieStorm 3:38 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
PAGASA. At 2:00 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 90 kms East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.2�N, 124.2�E). Meanwhile, a Shallow Low Pressure Area (SLPA) was estimated at 70 kms West of Dagupan City or 80 kms Northwest of Iba, Zambales (16.0�N, 118.6�E) and another Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 940 kms East of Northern Mindanao (10.0�N, 135.0�E). Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13272

1781. CaneAddict 3:52 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Good morning all :P! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151

1782. CatastrophicDL 3:53 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
'morning Cane :o) Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

1783. hahaguy 3:56 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Morning. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

1784. Patrap 3:56 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Swine flu precautions taken By Kristen Hackney-redman \| AVALANCHE-JOURNAL Tuesday, April 28, 2009 Story last updated at 4/28/2009 - 1:42 am Area and state health officials are working to prepare for the possibility of an outbreak of swine flu in Lubbock and the South Plains. Sandy Fortenberry, public health preparedness coordinator for the city of Lubbock Health Department, said the agency is working with the Texas Department of State Health Services through conference calls to keep up-to-date on the latest information regarding swine flu. The department is also working with area health care providers to keep them up-to-date and to answer their questions about swine flu, she said. "Since 2003, we have been developing pandemic influenza plans and we have been training and exercising on mass prophylaxis, so I think, as a city, we are very well prepared for a public health threat such as this one," Fortenberry said. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1785. Patrap 3:58 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak By The Associated Press \| Lubbock Avalanche-Journal Tuesday, April 28, 2009 Story last updated at 4/28/2009 A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak: - December 2005 to January 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention receives reports of 12 cases of human infection with swine flu. Five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs and six reported being near pigs. Exposure in one case is unknown. - March 28: Believed to be the date of the earliest onset of the swine flu cases in the U.S., Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC said in an April 23 press briefing. - April 2: A 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before this date in Veracruz state, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova later said citing test results. A community in Veracruz has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm. - April 6: Local health officials declare a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in the Mexican town of La Gloria in Veracruz state. Health officials record 400 cases of people who sought medical treatment in the previous week in the town. About 60 percent of the town of 3,000 are affected. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1786. presslord 4:11 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Cat...very cool...we're going to an Eagle Scout ceremony Sunday for a friends' son who did his project with us... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1787. RMM34667 4:19 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting: NEwx:getting kinda hott kinda early up there this year???,lol,I grew up in Ledyard,CT I don't remember it getting that hot back then,I lived their for 14yrs.....94 for a high in boston metro!!!! 94 in APRIL?? I grew up in Boston and wouldn't expect to see a 90 till July! Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

1788. Ossqss 4:27 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Here we go. Such community transmission is one of the early earmarks of a pandemic, and if it continues to be observed, experts predicted, the World Health Organization is likely to raise its alert level to Level 5, from the currently elevated Level 4. Such an increase might involve more travel restrictions and stronger efforts to control the spread of the virus. New swine flu cases reported around the globe Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1789. weathermanwannabe 4:32 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Patrap: A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak By The Associated Press \| Lubbock Avalanche-Journal Tuesday, April 28, 2009 Story last updated at 4/28/2009 A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak: - December 2005 to January 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention receives reports of 12 cases of human infection with swine flu. Five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs and six reported being near pigs. Exposure in one case is unknown. - March 28: Believed to be the date of the earliest onset of the swine flu cases in the U.S., Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC said in an April 23 press briefing. - April 2: A 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before this date in Veracruz state, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova later said citing test results. A community in Veracruz has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm. - April 6: Local health officials declare a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in the Mexican town of La Gloria in Veracruz state. Health officials record 400 cases of people who sought medical treatment in the previous week in the town. About 60 percent of the town of 3,000 are affected. Hey Pat; I spoke about keeping to the Weather yesterday but this is pressing problem; I just received an uncomfirmed report that a swine flu victim has been identifed in Orlando Florida (the first case so far, if confirmed, in Florida)....A toursit at Disney World from Mexico.....Not sure if this will be confirmed through the media later but I would imagine that the woman has been quarantined, but, this may not be helpful to the visitors who may have had contact with her at the Park.. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6675

1790. Orcasystems 4:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe: Hey Pat; I spoke about keeping to the Weather yesterday but this is pressing problem; I just received an uncomfirmed report that a swine flu victim has been identifed in Orlando Florida (the first case so far, if confirmed, in Florida)....A toursit at Disney World from Mexico.....Not sure if this will be confirmed through the media later but I would imagine that the woman has been quarantined, but, this may not be helpful to the visitors who may have had contact with her at the Park.. Its all over the drudge report... its confirmed Swine Flu Case Confirmed In Orlando Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1791. Orcasystems 4:45 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting presslord: and, as a side note which justifies our mission of serving the unserved, under served and forgotten people...a ton of informationn is available to us regarding the impact at Barefoot...virtually none is available regarding the less well heeled victims...so SJ will be doing some needs assessment... Does this mean you are branching out and covering the California fires when they happen also? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1792. Patrap 4:48 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000. Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day. Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider. The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone. Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1793. Patrap 4:50 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Here's a relevant to the Entry Video,chosen for your consideration.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1794. Orcasystems 4:57 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Patrap: Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000. Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day. Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider. The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone. Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible. Thank you for the sanest post I have seen on this in days... on almost any blog. I have seen people go as far to say.. close down the borders stop everyone and anyone from moving. Folks, the Genie is out of the bottle.... common sense and proper precautions will keep you safe. Mass hysteria and knee jerk reactions only make it worse. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1795. Patrap 5:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
I gotta agree with ya on the hype Orca. One has a better chance of choking on a Pork Rind than croaking from the Swine flu. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1796. Orcasystems 5:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Patrap: I gotta agree with ya on the hype Orca. One has a better chance of choking on a Pork Rind than croaking from the Swine flu. Agreed.. those little suckers have to be washed down with beer Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1797. HadesGodWyvern 5:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (1500z 28APR) ============================================ An area of convection (95W) located at 7.3N 138.6E or 140 NM south-southeast of Yap. Recent animated infrared imagery shows a broad circulation associated with an organizing low level circulation center. A 1022z SSMIS image shows fragmented deep convective banding wrapping into a poorly organized low level circulation center. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of low vertical wind shear, favorable total percipitable water and high sea surface temperatures. Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level prsesure of 1010 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684

1798. Ossqss 5:04 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Link Quoting Patrap: Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000. Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day. Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider. The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone. Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible. Pat is correct, be smart and informed = safer ! If interested here are specifics on the reference to flu deaths. Like any stat it is subject to scrutiny in the details. Questions and Answers Regarding Estimating Deaths from Influenza in the United States Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1799. Ossqss 5:07 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Orca, you better keep those Canucks in quarantine before the next sieries :) Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1800. Seastep 5:19 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Quoting Patrap: Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000. Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day. Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider. The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone. Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible. Agreed in terms of "see what happens." Nothing so far to go nuts about. Want there to be no doubt that there is nothing to date for people to go crazy about. But, there is a slight difference and why there is greater concern. Those 32K are either very old or very young. Not 24-45 year old range as is happening in Mexico. Again, no deaths here at all and, I believe, only a single hospitalization, so just need to keep an eye on it. Again, the reason there is more concern over this one is the age of those that have died. Like this chart, just as an illustration of the difference between normal and pandemic. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1801. Seastep 5:19 PM GMT on April 28, 2009
Folks just need to stay informed. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

Viewing: 1751 - 1801

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters