Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Danny still weak

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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451. hunkerdown 12:22 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81: Yea, models getting ready to go even further west. stop focusing on models on a tropical wave, it means nothing at this time. 94L is still very disorganized and will continue to move on a westward track, for the most part, until/if it develops further. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

452. hunkerdown 12:23 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut: For those in S.E. Florida Channel 10 is having a 2009 Hurricane Season Update with Max Mayfield zzzzzzzzzzzzzz Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

453. Orcasystems 12:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Work is over... hurray :) AOI AOI AOI AOI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

454. hunkerdown 12:24 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting VARob: I don't think it is going to go WNW,W or any other direction other than SSW. And to think two day's ago it was a fish headed NE. ????? Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

455. kanc2001 12:26 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Weathermandan: WU loop (ending at 8:07 PM EDT) Link Looks like the center is under the convection and the storm as a whole is drifting south. Link NHC loop (ending at 6:45 PM EDT) Looks like the LLC is still defined northwest of the convection, moving ENE. What's ACTUALLY going on? My gut tells me the "center" I'm seeing on the WU loop may very well be an illusion, but it certainly looks ominous.... Thoughts? :) a ULL over GA like that in the winter would give the Carolinas an epic snowstorm Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181

456. AllStar17 12:26 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
A couple observations: 1) 94L is slowly but surely getting better organized. Convection has recently flared close to the CoC which was confirmed by QuickScat in the latest satellite images. 2) Danny has NOT had a center relocation....the same old center that was stationary earlier is now moving NNE, with a jog to the ENE in the latest frames. Really....who knows what Danny is doing! It has already proven it has a mind of its own. FYI - The computer I use for my graphics is being used at the moment. (:I I will have to make another set of graphics soon, and should be able to do so, and post graphics again, tomorrow. I know most of you do like them, so I will create new ones tomorrow. I will use those until I get my computer back. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

457. hunkerdown 12:27 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting P451: Oh, Danny, what are you up to? Is this it? Is he now heading NE and out of the picture for the CONUS? Bermuda threat? Is this just a jog? Getting sucked into the convection? Will this cause strengthening? Is this somehow part of a loop? Is he going to get left behind by the Florida ULL/Trough? ...Danny suddenly became interesting again. At least for the time being until he reveals his true motive. Exactly what is interesting about it ? Looks pretty lame, moving ENE to NE, with no real appearance of strngthening. It is truly holding on for dear life. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

459. robie1conobie 12:28 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Dakster: We'll see. It's all about the U... the U hasnt done much of anything in recent memory Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

460. Tazmanian 12:28 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
94L is RIP we have seen what 94L has done and all so looks like the mode runs are droping 94L has well 94L had a good life 94L has pass a way good bye far well well see you next time a round Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

461. hurricane23 12:28 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Great to here AOML has gotten futher funding for there tc products. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13327

462. hunkerdown 12:28 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting hurricane23: 94 really looking like a mess at the moment.Very broard ill defind mid/surface circulation.Models are not to agreesive at the moment. Just something to watch but not looking good tonight. adrian I was beginning to think I was the only one. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

464. KC2NOLA 12:30 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Thanks P451! Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

465. tornadodude 12:30 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
hey, how do i post an image? thanks Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

466. adjusterx 12:31 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: Exactly what is interesting about it ? Looks pretty lame, moving ENE to NE, with no real appearance of strngthening. It is truly holding on for dear life. Geez O Pete your just a furrball of fun since ya jumped on tonight, bad day at work??

467. hunkerdown 12:31 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting robie1conobie: the U hasnt done much of anything in recent memory hmmm...and what did Louis Murphy say last year about the "U"... Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

468. StormFreakyisher 12:32 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
So Danny may actually have an ace up his sleeve. Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

469. AllStar17 12:32 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: 94L is RIP we have seen what 94L has done and all so looks like the mode runs are droping 94L has well 94L had a good life 94L has pass a way good bye far well well see you next time a round Come on, Taz. Quoting P451: It depends on what is being focused on. The convection is racing WSW'ward it would seem. The Low Center is quite a bit east of that - and probably not moving as fast. That'd be my guess - that they're paying attention to the Low center. ===== 805PM A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE/LOW ALSO COINCIDE WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 38W-44W. Blowup of convection right over the supposed center. If this is a trend.....94L may begin to develop more rapidly. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

470. TheDawnAwakening 12:32 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
94L is finally getting more convection near the center moving to the west. The leading convection is giving the appearance that the wave is moving SW. Right now the wave is disorganized with some moderate convection in areas. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

471. hunkerdown 12:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting adjusterx: Geez O Pete your just a furrball of fun since ya jumped on tonight, bad day at work?? nah, just been labeled the realist (which is not the norm on here lately) :) No harm meant to anybody by it. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

472. Chicklit 12:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Danny is finally looking like he's getting his act together. But think Dr. Masters is right about the 'too little too late' thing. The system is headed into cooler waters and will end up much like Bill imo. Don't see anything pulling it west. Link ...With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm. Dr. Jeff Masters Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10380

473. StormFreakyisher 12:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Loop-de-loop?Like Hurricane Jeanne? Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

474. IKE 12:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
GFDL and HWRF have not run on 94L since the 6Z runs. Is it RIP time? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

475. AllStar17 12:34 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting StormFreakyisher: Loop-de-loop?Like Hurricane Jeanne? Hopefully not. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

476. hunkerdown 12:34 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting AllStar17: Come on, Taz. Blowup of convection right over the supposed center. If this is a trend.....94L may begin to develop more rapidly. I believe it has a lot of consolidatiung to do before it strengthens...and for now, I definitely don;t see it doing anything rapidly. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

477. tornadodude 12:34 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
how do i post an image? thanks, matt Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

478. Tazmanian 12:34 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE: GFDL and HWRF have not run on 94L since the 6Z runs. Is it RIP time? yup its RIP time Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

479. FloridaTigers 12:34 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: 94L is RIP we have seen what 94L has done and all so looks like the mode runs are droping 94L has well 94L had a good life 94L has pass a way good bye far well well see you next time a round No offense dude, but why does it seem like you're always wrong about everything? Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

480. CaicosRetiredSailor 12:35 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting tornadodude: hey, how do i post an image? thanks How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253

481. tornadodude 12:35 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs thanks Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

482. canesrule1 12:36 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I'm starting to become skeptical on 94L if it will survive or not.

483. hunkerdown 12:36 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting StormFreakyisher: Loop-de-loop?Like Hurricane Jeanne? IF it does, which I am not convinced, it is just delaying the inevitabke, a path to the NE out of here... Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

484. IKE 12:36 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Help needed....??? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

486. stormsurge39 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Taz, RIP---- youve got to be kidding. LOL

487. stormwatcherCI 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Chicklit: Where's KmanIslander? He's my Caribbean expert! He said he would be back later. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8061

488. Relix 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Taz and Ike: Don't be downcasters. The system is just starting to strenghten in fact. You can't expect a perfect COC to develop in 6 hours, it takes time, and right now the convection is building around it. In fact, now you could say is when the real development begins. There's no reason to call it RIP as the conditions are favorable for it. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359

489. kmanislander 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: He said he would be back later. You rang ?? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

490. ackee 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Do u guys think 94L convection raceing WSW may actualy develop serperately from where 94L low is located ? Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1196

491. canesrule1 12:37 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE: GFDL and HWRF have not run on 94L since the 6Z runs. Is it RIP time? by the way, where can I find the latest model runs as soon as they come out?

492. flibinite 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Yeah, I mentioned that "jolt" back in post #343 or so, PA. I know about COC relocations and all, but Danny's just leaped to the ENE, from completely stationary, in like 30 minutes, like something had kicked it in the pants. Very strange storm, indeed as Chicklit and others have said. And as it's been chugging and churning along in the same area for so long, one would think upwelling would be stealing some of its energy, too. Jo Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 256

493. AllStar17 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE: GFDL and HWRF have not run on 94L since the 6Z runs. Is it RIP time? Well then, why would the NHC say "gradual development is possible over the next few days" if they were going to deactivate it.....just do not think so. In fact, it is looking a smidgen better at this hour with a burst of convection over the COC. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

494. Chicklit 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: I believe it has a lot of consolidatiung to do before it strengthens...and for now, I definitely don;t see it doing anything rapidly. Agree, hunkerdown. It has been taking its time. But I am seeing more circulation now. We may see more organization tomorrow. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10380

495. Tazmanian 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
X 93L/94E is now TD 13E has it was forcast too it this pop up on the navy site Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

496. robie1conobie 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: hmmm...and what did Louis Murphy say last year about the "U"... IDK,what did Louis say? they are gonna suck again this year. Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

497. stormsurge39 12:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Whats up with some of you thinking 94L aint goin to make it?

498. stormwatcherCI 12:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander: You rang ?? Some folks looking for your expert opinion on 94 L. What say you ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8061

499. cyclonekid 12:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
How do you guys post the animations of the loops from the NHC website? Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1673

500. hunkerdown 12:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE: Help needed....??? not sure help would do it any good for now...anyone on here red cross trained with CPR or using a defibrillator ? Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

501. Chicklit 12:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander: You rang ?? Yes, ringing Kman about 94L. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10380

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