Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...put THIS in motion...look on the continent.

EUMETSAT

Looks impressive

Thanks Storm and JLP it kinda caught my eye. I know it could go poof the next day but wow!

Good NIght All, What are the chances of 94L coming my way?

18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest

Quoting JRRP:
18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest

.3N Gain
1.9W Gain

Estimate if current track sticks
At around 60W it would be close to 19.0... of course this is if it keeps going the same way or if the COC doesn't reform, also.. it's a pretty basic thing what I did, but could give an estimate on the track.

That AEW over the Togo area is looking so good because it's still over land. I'll be very interested to see if CV islands report a surface low with it as it passes, though. These waves can look great over WAfrica, only to fizzle out over the very different environment of the EAtl.

Oh wait I made a little... mistake!!!

At 67W it would be at 19N. SOOO.... 63W it would be around 18.2N. Almost direct impact to PR =P.

just keep all the storms to the east coast this year so they all have a chance to go out to sea.

take a look at the track of TD 13

I think our luck is running out as 94L will likely be the first real threat of the year.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I think our luck is running out as 94L will likely be the first real threat of the year.

So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?

NASA weather officer, Kathy Winters, reports weather is 80% favorable for launch at this time.

Is the space shuttle going up tonight? If so, what time?

Doesnt look like 94L is going anywhere anytime soon. I sitll think based on the setup will will make that sharp north turn like Bill and Danny. East Coast will have to keep an eye on it.

Quoting TriniGirl26:


So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?

Too early to say but, it sure looks like an island threat is coming and the first threat into the Caribbean will be coming...

Quoting nishinigami:
Hi Storm,

I have seen a few people mention here tonight that there have been no model runs on 94L since this morning. Some have said it is because they are going to drop it. What is your opinion on why there have been no updates?

Not all of the models have stopped. These are current as of 7 pm CDT tonight. Does appear that GFDL and HWRF are not being run on 94 right now. Not sure why. Not important, really. Without a developed system they wouldn't have anything useful to show us.

Quoting Bigguy675:
Is the space shuttle going up tonight? If so, what time?

1 hr.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
just keep all the storms to the east coast this year so they all have a chance to go out to sea.

Where did you go to school?

761. Taz

I think u were talking abt the possibility of this the other night. Interesting possibility of EPac and ATL landfalling hurricanes within a short period of time. Suggests we're getting into the heart of the season, in a way.

Port....thanks. Maybe it'll be clear of clouds to my north so we can see it take off. Love those night time take offs.

Anyhoo,

G'nite all.

Unfortunately will have to work tomorrow, so will not be around much before the evening.

I'd really like to see what 94L does in the next 24....

Looks to me like Danny has once again relocated its COC underneath the heaviest convection to the SE of the last forecast point.....

BAMD BAMM BAMS

Just noting in the plot in post 769 that XTRP is showing us how very slow it is moving. A slow tropical system is sometimes a turning tropical system. Maybe the models that want to drag it to the N right away have something. That would be nice.

thank you Storm, Atmoaggie.

I believe 94L is too weak and has too low of a latitude to be as affected by the troughs as the models think. Don't know what its strength will be but I think the Leeward islands will be directly affected by it.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Where did you go to school?

Penn State

94l center is near 10n38w?

Quoting TriniGirl26:


So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?

I would say over them =)

Quoting StormW:
IF the current shear forecast is correct..the next 24-30 hours will tell us about 94L.

StormW if it stays weak. It goes South into the Caribbean.....Could be trouble IMO

Any thoughts on the timing of the front pushing across the US and the upper low that is just over the Gulf States having an impact on a potential path for 94L?

Quoting TampaSpin:


Too early to say but, it sure looks like an island threat is coming and the first threat into the Caribbean will be coming...

Thank you TampaSpin :)

NASA TV just reported all weather constraints are green.

Prefered launch time 11:59:37 PM EDT (035937 GMT)

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Penn State

Another good met school.

Picking a school all depends on what you want to get out of it, and what kind of degree you want. If you want to do mainly TV, then a broadcast meteorology degree will do. If you want to work for NWS, then you will need a degree in which you took all the maths, physics, and meteorology courses required, and most private companies require the same thing I think. The second thing is what you want to get outside of the classroom, i.e. research, viewing the weather on your own time, etc. For instance, if you are into chasing storms, then you would need to be at a school in/near the plains. If you like blizzard type weather, you would need to stay in the northeast. If you like tropical storms, then live near the coast. Pretty much you'll get the same degree at any school you go to, some places may have better teachers, but alot of what you learn weather wise isn't in the classroom...at least it wasn't for me. It was talking with other students, reading forecast discussions, doing our own forecasts when chasing, and so on.

Overall i think a big part of majoring in Meteorology is picking a school where there's some weather you like - since it's a major part of most of our lives. If you love snow and hate the heat and humidity, you'll think twice about spending 4 years in Oklahoma or Florida.I currently just transfered from fsu to Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences in southeast florida.

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...put THIS in motion...look on the continent.

EUMETSAT

All I can say is wowsa!!!!

Have we ever named one over land? LOL

Quoting thelmores:




All I can say is wowsa!!!!

Have we ever named one over land? LOL

i think i remember this conversation earlier today...and i think the answer is NO lol

Sorry, but Danny is still most interesting to me.

Center is not where thought, imo. Or, if you prefer, new entity.

HH are going out there at 2am EDT, so we will see, but new center (storm) forming at rought 29N/73W, imo. Could be W of there, but way S of where it is pegged atm.

Models are great, but when NHC is off of their next point drastically (as they have been for 24 hours), it's an anomaly I do not ignore. i.e., they have no clue what is going on. Doing their best, based on empirical data, but sometimes, that's just not enough.

Just as I have said when they are spot on, only indicative of 12hr forecast at most. When they miss, especially badly, it is clear the models don't have a handle on the situation.

We'll find out when HH goes in at 2am.

QS pass at 8pm EDT hints at what I am suggesting.

Link

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Any thoughts on the timing of the front pushing across the US and the upper low that is just over the Gulf States having an impact on a potential path for 94L?

Wow, they have pretty deep isolated cells north of you.

About the timing of it all. I cannot say if this isn't going to be Bill-part deux. Some seasons, it seems that once a pattern sets up during the peak of the season, it doesn't change for a month.

I am not saying that 94 couldn't be something to watch...for everyone...but I will not be at all surprised if it skims along the east coast...possibly even not all that close to the east coast.

Quoting hurricane23:
Picking a school all depends on what you want to get out of it, and what kind of degree you want. If you want to do mainly TV, then a broadcast meteorology degree will do. If you want to work for NWS, then you will need a degree in which you took all the maths, physics, and meteorology courses required, and most private companies require the same thing I think. The second thing is what you want to get outside of the classroom, i.e. research, viewing the weather on your own time, etc. For instance, if you are into chasing storms, then you would need to be at a school in/near the plains. If you like blizzard type weather, you would need to stay in the northeast. If you like tropical storms, then live near the coast. Pretty much you'll get the same degree at any school you go to, some places may have better teachers, but alot of what you learn weather wise isn't in the classroom...at least it wasn't for me. It was talking with other students, reading forecast discussions, doing our own forecasts when chasing, and so on.

Overall i think a big part of majoring in Meteorology is picking a school where there's some weather you like - since it's a major part of most of our lives. If you love snow and hate the heat and humidity, you'll think twice about spending 4 years in Oklahoma or Florida.I currently just transfered from fsu to Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences in southeast florida.

Yes and no...just because a school is in the northeast doesnt mean you dont study tornados or hurricanes. One of my main professors at Penn State did nothing but major tornado research and that is what we focused on in many classes. Shoot I had Lake Effect snow all winter but never really studied it in school.

Best schools IMO, Penn State, Oklahoma, Flordia State, Colorado St. Wisconsin, Miss St (for a no math degree). Just heard Virginia tech is starting a program.

That is what I am thinking. I dont see 94L going into the Gulf. It looks like an out to sea storm to me but if it hits the east coast I would look for a small hit in NC. Too early to tell but that is what I would lean towards today.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Yes and no...just because a school is in the northeast doesnt mean you dont study tornados or hurricanes. One of my main professors at Penn State did nothing but major tornado research and that is what we focused on in many classes. Shoot I had Lake Effect snow all winter but never really studied it in school.

Best schools IMO, Penn State, Oklahoma, Flordia State, Colorado St. Wisconsin, Miss St (for a no math degree). Just heard Virginia tech is starting a program.

Cough NC State cough (my school)

Adrian,
I got a job offer at RSMAS coming out of A&M. The pay wouldn't let me live within an hours drive of Virginia Key. I didn't take that offer. (thankfully had more than one offer)

Quoting HurricaneKing:


Cough NC State cough (my school)

Yea my bad...that is a good one too. I know about 8 or 9 people that graduated from there